Grobiņa v Riga prediction · Virsliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GrobiņaDrawRiga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Riga 77%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grobiņa 8%, draw 15%, Riga 77%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Grobiņa v RigaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Grobiņa win8%

Draw15%

Riga win77%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueGrobina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grobiņa

Riga

9Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Riga	33	+59	79
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riga winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

77% The market77%

Us77%

~~Market~~77%

We make Riga a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.7–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grobiņa v Riga~~0.66 – 2.50

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 29 v 79~~8 v 2

~~The market · Riga win~~77% · ours 77%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Riga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grobiņa win	8%	9%	−1
Draw	15%	15%	0
Riga win	77%	77%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Grobiņa or draw	23%	23%	0
Grobiņa clean sheet	9%	–	–
Riga clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.2%

0123450 4.6 10.6 13.2 10.9 6.9 3.51 2.8 7.1 8.5 7.0 4.4 2.22 2.4 2.9 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grobiņa down, Riga across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 Virsliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grobiņa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Riga away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.66 goals for Grobiņa, 2.50 for Riga. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RIG 4–0 GRO · RIG 2–0 GRO · GRO 0–3 RIG · GRO 1–1 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug

GROBIŅA

WLDDLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

RIGA

DDWWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	33	+57	83
2	Riga	33	+59	79
3	Auda	33	+19	64
4	FK Liepaja	34	0	47
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	−15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	34	−21	25
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18