Grobiņa v Ogre United prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Grobiņa 3–2 Ogre United GROBIŅA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grobiņa win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grobiņa win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Grobiņa was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Grobiņa v Ogre United
4′SUBSTITUTION · 4' Ogre United · On: M. Ivulans · Off: J. Fokam
17′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Grobiņa 1–0 Ogre United
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Grobiņa win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
18′Grobiņa ahead on 18′ through A. Jovanovic. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
41′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Grobiņa win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' D. Druzinins · Grobiņa
45′SECOND HALF Grobiņa 1–0 Ogre United
46′HALF-TIME Grobiņa 1–0 Ogre United
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ogre United · On: T. Mickevics · Off: A. Doroshenko
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Grobiņa · On: K. Rupeiks · Off: O. Rascevskis
61′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Grobiņa 2–0 Ogre United
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Grobiņa win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
62′Dodo scores for Grobiņa on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ogre United · On: M. Pacepko · Off: M. Ivulans Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ogre United · On: A. Marchuk · Off: I. Pulis
69′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Grobiņa 2–1 Ogre United
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Grobiņa win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
70′70′: K. Cudars on the scoresheet for Ogre United, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
70′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Grobiņa 3–1 Ogre United
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Grobiņa win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
71′Grobiņa ahead on 71′ through H. Yamada. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ogre United · On: V. Mashchenko · Off: A. Molotkovs
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grobiņa · On: G. Kluskins · Off: H. Yamada
82′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′We published Grobiņa at 45%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–2 · 94–6–0
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Grobiņa 3–2 Ogre United
87′M. Kalnins scores for Ogre United on 86′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Grobiņa · On: A. Puzirevskis · Off: O. Olatunde-Matthew
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' R. Sibass · Ogre United
94′Full time, 3–2. We called Grobiņa at 45% — that one lands. 3–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Grobiņa 3–2 Ogre United
FTGrobiņa 3–2 Ogre United · Grobiņa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grobiņa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grobiņa 45%, draw 26%, Ogre United 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Grobiņa v Ogre UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grobiņa win45%

Draw26%

Ogre United win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 33

Line-ups

Grobiņa

4-4-2

Ogre United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grobiņa

Ogre United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 11 Oct · Virsliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
10	Ogre United	32	−47	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Grobiņa

4-4-2

21 R. Ozols

11 O. Rascevskis

15 A. Jovanovic

3 D. Druzinins

27 R. Baravykas

14 M. Sidorovs

8 O. Olatunde-Matthew

87 J. Ribeiro

20 H. Yamada

6 M. Corryn

77 Dodo

Coach · Oskars Klava

Substitutes

1 · V. Kudrjavcevs

2 · K. Rupeiks

32 · G. Kluskins

5 · G. Leitans

80 · A. Baydal

99 · A. Puzirevskis

13 · A. Aruna

Ogre United

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Parfjonovs

5 R. Sibass

13 K. Gulbis

55 A. Kudelkins

27 A. Molotkovs

7 I. Pulis

30 A. Doroshenko

19 K. Cudars

10 M. Kalnins

22 L. Estevez Fernandez

9 J. Fokam

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · K. Biscuhis

91 · J. Grinbergs

6 · D. Vejkrigers

2 · R. Ziemelis

8 · T. Mickevics

71 · A. Marchuk

17 · V. Mashchenko

11 · M. Pacepko

21 · M. Ivulans

Our number · grobiņa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Grobiņa a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grobiņa v Ogre United~~1.51 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 18~~8 v 10

~~The market · Grobiņa win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grobiņa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grobiņa win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Ogre United win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Grobiņa or draw	71%	77%	−6
Grobiņa clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ogre United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 7.9 4.6 1 10.5 12.1 6.8 2.7 2 8.0 9.0 5.1 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grobiņa down, Ogre United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 999 Virsliga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grobiņa at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ogre United away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Grobiņa, 1.15 for Ogre United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GRO 2–2 OGR · OGR 1–1 GRO · OGR 1–1 GRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 21 Aug

GROBIŅA

LWLDDL1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

OGRE UNITED

LLDLWL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	32	+55	80
2	Riga	32	+58	76
3	Auda	32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	−3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	−14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	32	−47	18