FS Jelgava v BFC Daugavpils prediction · Virsliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FS JelgavaDrawBFC Daugavpils

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BFC Daugavpils 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with BFC Daugavpils just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FS Jelgava 34%, draw 28%, BFC Daugavpils 38%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on FS Jelgava v BFC DaugavpilsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FS Jelgava win34%

Draw28%

BFC Daugavpils win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueOlympic Sports Center of Zemgale

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FS Jelgava

BFC Daugavpils

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 19 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bfc daugavpils winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market48%

Us38%

~~Market~~48%

We make BFC Daugavpils a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FS Jelgava v BFC Daugavpils~~1.14 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 45~~7 v 5

~~The market · BFC Daugavpils win~~48% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BFC Daugavpils win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FS Jelgava win	34%	27%	+7
Draw	28%	25%	+3
BFC Daugavpils win	38%	48%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	42%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
FS Jelgava or draw	62%	52%	+10
FS Jelgava clean sheet	30%	–	–
BFC Daugavpils clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.8 11.4 7.0 2.9 1 10.6 13.1 7.9 3.2 2 6.1 7.4 4.5 3 2.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FS Jelgava down, BFC Daugavpils across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,004 Virsliga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FS Jelgava at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). BFC Daugavpils away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for FS Jelgava, 1.22 for BFC Daugavpils. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BFC 2–1 FSJ · FSJ 1–1 BFC · BFC 1–0 FSJ · FSJ 0–0 BFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug

FS JELGAVA

WLDLLL4–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–3

BFC DAUGAVPILS

LDLDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	33	+57	83
2	Riga	33	+59	79
3	Auda	33	+19	64
4	FK Liepaja	34	0	47
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	−15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	34	−21	25
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18