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Model 1.2

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FK Liepaja v Tukums

FK Liepaja
0–0Full time
Tukums

Virsliga · SAT 24 OCT · Daugava Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums FK LIEPAJA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FK Liepaja win60%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.021
The market’s Brier score1.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FK Liepaja win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FK Liepaja was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FK Liepaja v Tukums
  4. 29′7 shots for FK Liepaja, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 53–27–20
  5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  6. 42′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–32–19
  7. 45′FK Liepaja have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–34–19
  8. 45′HALF-TIME FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
  9. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' FK Liepaja
  10. 46′SECOND HALF FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
  11. 51′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
  12. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' marcis davis valmiers · Tukums
  13. 52′FK Liepaja have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 44–38–18
  14. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–40–18
  15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
  16. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' FK Liepaja · On: Bart Straalman · Off: Rodolphe Ekou
  17. 59′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
  18. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was FK Liepaja win 41%)
  19. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tukums · On: Rudolfs Melkis · Off: marcis davis valmiers
  20. 66′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
  21. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  22. 72′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
  23. 76′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–12
  24. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jun Toba · Tukums
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Liepaja · On: Amar haidara · Off: abiodun ogunniyi
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Liepaja · On: Lucas Crysthyan · Off: Kyvon·Leidsman
  27. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  28. 80′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
  29. 80′FK Liepaja have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 19–72–9
  30. 83′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
  31. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kristaps klavins · Tukums
  32. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
  33. 87′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  34. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tukums · On: Shun Shibata · Off: Koyo Shigema
  35. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tukums · On: Joksts H. · Off: Daniels radzenieks
  36. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Liepaja · On: Bruno Melnis · Off: danila patijcuks
  37. 92′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
  38. FTFULL TIME FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
  39. FTFK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums · FK Liepaja win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Liepaja are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Liepaja 60%, draw 21%, Tukums 19%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on FK Liepaja v TukumsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Liepaja win60%
Draw21%
Tukums win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueDaugava Stadium

Line-ups

FK Liepaja

4-2-3-1

Tukums

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Liepaja

Tukums

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 19 Oct · Virsliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4FK Liepaja33046
9Tukums33−2124

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Liepaja

4-2-3-1

24 D. Ošs

28 A. Korobenko

34 João Pedro

4 M. Martins

3 K. Iļjins

5 L. Strumia

6 E. Rodolphe

7 A. Ogunniyi

44 K. Leidsman

70 D. Patijčuks

18 J. Ede

Coach · J. Goba

Substitutes

35 · V. Sorokins

2 · B. Straalman

9 · Crysthyan Lucas

23 · A. Haïdara

26 · V. Isajevs

77 · Afonso Leite

17 · B. Melnis

22 · Irad Mushindi

12 · D. Petković

Tukums

4-4-2

1 S. Vilkovs

16 Kristaps Klavins

6 K. Volkovs

8 R. Reingolcs

21 D. Valmiers

10 B. Samoilovs

29 K. Shigema

5 J. Toba

4 K. Anmanis

19 D. Radzenieks

27 R. Deružinskis

Coach · K. Dišlers

Substitutes

35 · I. Ivanausks

25 · H. Joksts

12 · A. Kuprins

28 · R. Meļķis

7 · S. Shibata

22 · E. Sprukts

88 · M. Štāls

30 · M. Šusts

18 · D. Calbergs

Our number · fk liepaja winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
60% The market64%
Us60%
Market64%

We make FK Liepaja a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FK Liepaja v Tukums2.08 – 1.09
Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 AugW2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 46 v 244 v 9
The market · FK Liepaja win64% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:44
Our probability · FK Liepaja win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FK Liepaja win60%64%−4
Draw21%20%+1
Tukums win19%16%+3
Over 2.5 goals61%63%−2
Both teams to score58%57%+1
Over 1.5 goals82%82%0
Over 3.5 goals39%42%−3
FK Liepaja or draw81%84%−3
FK Liepaja clean sheet34%––
Tukums clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 4.5 4.5 2.5 1 8.7 9.6 5.1 2 9.1 9.7 5.3 3 6.3 6.7 3.7 4 3.3 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FK Liepaja down, Tukums across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsTUK 2–1 FKL · FKL 3–0 TUK · TUK 2–2 FKL · FKL 4–1 TUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug

FK LIEPAJA

WDDDLW3–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–0

TUKUMS

LWLDLL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rīgas FS33+5783
2Riga33+5979
3Auda33+1964
4FK Liepaja33046
5BFC Daugavpils33+245
6Super Nova33−1538
7FS Jelgava33−2232
8Grobiņa33−3129
9Tukums33−2124
10Ogre United33−4818

The competition's standings before kick-off.