

FK Liepaja v Tukums
FK Liepaja
TukumsVirsliga · SAT 24 OCT · Daugava Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FK Liepaja win at 60%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: FK Liepaja was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
- 1′KICK-OFF FK Liepaja v Tukums
- 29′7 shots for FK Liepaja, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 53–27–20
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
- 42′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–32–19
- 45′FK Liepaja have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–34–19
- 45′HALF-TIME FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' FK Liepaja
- 46′SECOND HALF FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
- 51′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' marcis davis valmiers · Tukums
- 52′FK Liepaja have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 44–38–18
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–40–18
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' FK Liepaja · On: Bart Straalman · Off: Rodolphe Ekou
- 59′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
- 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was FK Liepaja win 41%)
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tukums · On: Rudolfs Melkis · Off: marcis davis valmiers
- 66′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
- 72′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–13
- 76′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–12
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jun Toba · Tukums
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Liepaja · On: Amar haidara · Off: abiodun ogunniyi
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Liepaja · On: Lucas Crysthyan · Off: Kyvon·Leidsman
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
- 80′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
- 80′FK Liepaja have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 19–72–9
- 83′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kristaps klavins · Tukums
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' FK Liepaja win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
- 87′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tukums · On: Shun Shibata · Off: Koyo Shigema
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tukums · On: Joksts H. · Off: Daniels radzenieks
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Liepaja · On: Bruno Melnis · Off: danila patijcuks
- 92′We said FK Liepaja at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
- FTFULL TIME FK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums
- FTFK Liepaja 0–0 Tukums · FK Liepaja win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
FK Liepaja are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FK Liepaja 60%, draw 21%, Tukums 19%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
FK Liepaja win60%
Tukums win19%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 34
VenueDaugava Stadium
Match timeline
All events
FK LiepajaMIN
TukumsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FK Liepaja
4-2-3-1
Tukums
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FK Liepaja
Tukums
Last match: 18 Oct · Virsliga
Last match: 19 Oct · Virsliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FK Liepaja
4-2-3-1
24 D. Ošs
28 A. Korobenko
34 João Pedro
4 M. Martins
3 K. Iļjins
5 L. Strumia
6 E. Rodolphe
7 A. Ogunniyi
44 K. Leidsman
70 D. Patijčuks
18 J. Ede
Coach · J. Goba
Substitutes
35 · V. Sorokins
2 · B. Straalman
9 · Crysthyan Lucas
23 · A. Haïdara
26 · V. Isajevs
77 · Afonso Leite
17 · B. Melnis
22 · Irad Mushindi
12 · D. Petković
Tukums
4-4-2
1 S. Vilkovs
16 Kristaps Klavins
6 K. Volkovs
8 R. Reingolcs
21 D. Valmiers
10 B. Samoilovs
29 K. Shigema
5 J. Toba
4 K. Anmanis
19 D. Radzenieks
27 R. Deružinskis
Coach · K. Dišlers
Substitutes
35 · I. Ivanausks
25 · H. Joksts
12 · A. Kuprins
28 · R. Meļķis
7 · S. Shibata
22 · E. Sprukts
88 · M. Štāls
30 · M. Šusts
18 · D. Calbergs
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FK Liepaja
4-2-3-1
24 D. Ošs
28 A. Korobenko
34 João Pedro
4 M. Martins
3 K. Iļjins
5 L. Strumia
6 E. Rodolphe
7 A. Ogunniyi
44 K. Leidsman
70 D. Patijčuks
18 J. Ede
Coach · J. Goba
Substitutes
35 · V. Sorokins
2 · B. Straalman
9 · Crysthyan Lucas
23 · A. Haïdara
26 · V. Isajevs
77 · Afonso Leite
17 · B. Melnis
22 · Irad Mushindi
12 · D. Petković
Tukums
4-4-2
1 S. Vilkovs
16 Kristaps Klavins
6 K. Volkovs
8 R. Reingolcs
21 D. Valmiers
10 B. Samoilovs
29 K. Shigema
5 J. Toba
4 K. Anmanis
19 D. Radzenieks
27 R. Deružinskis
Coach · K. Dišlers
Substitutes
35 · I. Ivanausks
25 · H. Joksts
12 · A. Kuprins
28 · R. Meļķis
7 · S. Shibata
22 · E. Sprukts
88 · M. Štāls
30 · M. Šusts
18 · D. Calbergs
We make FK Liepaja a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja win | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | +1 |
| Tukums win | 19% | 16% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| FK Liepaja or draw | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| FK Liepaja clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Tukums clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 29 Aug
FK LIEPAJA
TUKUMS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 33 | +57 | 83 |
| 2 | Riga | 33 | +59 | 79 |
| 3 | Auda | 33 | +19 | 64 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 33 | 0 | 46 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 33 | +2 | 45 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 33 | −15 | 38 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 33 | −22 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 33 | −31 | 29 |
| 9 | Tukums | 33 | −21 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 33 | −48 | 18 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
Ogre United