FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

FK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava FK LIEPAJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Liepaja win~~54%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Liepaja win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: FK Liepaja was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–22
1′FK Liepaja score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
1′KICK-OFF FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava
12′FK Liepaja score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
12′We published FK Liepaja at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' FK Liepaja win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
19′12′: A. Korobenko on the scoresheet for FK Liepaja, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–6
41′We published FK Liepaja at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
45′HALF-TIME FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava
46′SECOND HALF FK Liepaja 1–0 FS Jelgava
60′FK Liepaja find the net on 59′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
60′We published FK Liepaja at 54%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' FK Liepaja 2–0 FS Jelgava
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' FK Liepaja win: 54% at kick-off, 97% now
63′A goal for FK Liepaja on 62′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′We published FK Liepaja at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' FK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava
64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FS Jelgava · On: M. Pudil · Off: E. Smaukstelis
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' FK Liepaja
66′A goal for FK Liepaja on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' L. Strumia · FK Liepaja
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FK Liepaja · On: V. Isajevs · Off: A. Korobenko
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FK Liepaja · On: B. Melnis · Off: D. Patijcuks
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FS Jelgava · On: T. Rataj · Off: A. Dreimanis
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' FS Jelgava
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Liepaja · On: Crysthyan · Off: K. Leidsman
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FK Liepaja · On: I. Mushindi · Off: E. Rodolphe
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FS Jelgava · On: G. Kacanovs · Off: R. Becers
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FS Jelgava · On: A. Deklavs · Off: G. Patika
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FK Liepaja · On: L. Lakutis · Off: A. Ogunniyi
FTFULL TIME FK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava
FTFK Liepaja 3–0 FS Jelgava · FK Liepaja win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Liepaja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Liepaja 54%, draw 24%, FS Jelgava 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on FK Liepaja v FS JelgavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Liepaja win54%

Draw24%

FS Jelgava win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueDaugavas stadions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Liepaja

FS Jelgava

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 11 Oct · Virsliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FK Liepaja	32	−3	43
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk liepaja winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market54%

Us54%

~~Market~~54%

We make FK Liepaja a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava~~1.69 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 43 v 32~~4 v 7

~~The market · FK Liepaja win~~54% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Liepaja win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Liepaja win	54%	54%	0
Draw	24%	24%	0
FS Jelgava win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
FK Liepaja or draw	78%	78%	0
FK Liepaja clean sheet	38%	–	–
FS Jelgava clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.3 6.7 3.4 1 11.6 11.5 5.6 2 9.8 9.5 4.7 3 5.6 5.4 2.6 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Liepaja down, FS Jelgava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,000 Virsliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Liepaja at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FS Jelgava away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for FK Liepaja, 0.98 for FS Jelgava. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FSJ 0–2 FKL · FSJ 1–1 FKL · FKL 1–1 FSJ · FKL 2–2 FSJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 22 Aug

FK LIEPAJA

LWDDDL0–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

FS JELGAVA

WWLDLL3–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	32	+55	80
2	Riga	32	+58	76
3	Auda	32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	−3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	−14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18