FK Liepaja v Auda prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

FK Liepaja 2–3 Auda AUDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Auda win~~37%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.603

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.699

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Auda win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Auda 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–28–37
1′KICK-OFF FK Liepaja v Auda
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Auda win 32%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Auda win 32%)
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Auda win 32%)
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Auda win 32%)
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Auda win 32%)
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Auda win 31%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' FK Liepaja 1–0 Auda · E. Oloko
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Auda win 31%)
40′38′ and it is 1–0: E. Oloko on the scoresheet for FK Liepaja. 1–0 · 69–22–9
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Auda win 31%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Auda win 9%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Auda win 9%)
42′We said Auda at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 70–22–8
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Auda win 9%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Auda win 8%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Auda win 8%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Auda win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' FK Liepaja win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Auda win 8%)
45′HALF-TIME FK Liepaja 1–0 Auda
46′SECOND HALF FK Liepaja 1–0 Auda
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Auda · On: J. Gerold · Off: B. Diedhiou
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' FK Liepaja 1–1 Auda · A. Appiah
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Auda · On: W. Fofana · Off: E. Bongemba
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' B. Straalman · FK Liepaja
76′⚽ GOAL · 38' FK Liepaja 1–1 Auda · E. Oloko (assist A. Ogunniyi)
76′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Auda · On: J. Gerold · Off: B. Diedhiou
76′⚽ GOAL · 54' FK Liepaja 1–1 Auda · A. Appiah
76′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Auda · On: W. Fofana · Off: E. Bongemba
76′🟨 YELLOW · 69' B. Straalman · FK Liepaja
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' FK Liepaja 2–1 Auda · E. Oloko
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' FK Liepaja 2–2 Auda · O. Rubenis
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' R. Kragliks · Auda
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Auda · On: M. Fofana · Off: A. Appiah
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Auda · On: J. Minins · Off: H. Ibrahim
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Auda · On: A. Ogunji · Off: O. Rubenis
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FK Liepaja · On: B. Melnis · Off: D. Patijcuks
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' FK Liepaja 2–3 Auda · J. Gerold
FTFULL TIME FK Liepaja 2–3 Auda
FTFK Liepaja 2–3 Auda · Auda win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

FK Liepaja win35%

Draw28%

Auda win37%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

VenueDaugavas stadions

Line-ups

FK Liepaja

4-1-4-1

Auda

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FK Liepaja

Auda

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FK Liepaja

4-1-4-1

24 Davis Oss

35 Vladislavs Sorokins

34 Talisca

2 Bart Straalman

28 Andriy Korobenko

6 Rodolphe Ekou

7 Abiodun Ogunniyi

5 Leonel Strumia

70 Danila Patijčuks

23 Amar Haïdara

18 Joseph Oloko Ede

Coach · Andreas Alm

Substitutes

3 · Kirils Iljins

17 · Bruno Melnis

12 · Danijel Petković

26 · Vjačeslavs Isajevs

22 · Irad Mshindi

29 · Lauris Lakutis

44 · Kyvon Leidsman

77 · Afonso Leite

9 · Crysthyan Lucas Da Silva Rocha

Auda

4-1-4-1

98 Nils Purins

3 Daniels Balodis

6 Ralfs Kragliks

4 Moussa Ouedraogo

71 Oskars Rubenis

20 Youba Traore

17 Eduards Daskevics

14 Hussaini Ibrahim

8 Edvin Bongemba

25 Barthelemy Diedhiou

7 Andrews Appiah

Coach · Didier Zanetti

Substitutes

46 · Jayen Gerold

10 · Wally Fofana

22 · Olabanjo Ogunji

77 · Jevgenijs Minins

23 · Mohamoud Fofana

1 · Raivo Sturins

66 · Alvis Jaunzems

21 · Roberts Bocs

42 · Mohamed Fofana

Our number · auda winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

37% The market32%

Us37%

~~Market~~32%

We make Auda a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · auda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Liepaja win	35%	42%	−6
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Auda win	37%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	23%	34%	−11
FK Liepaja or draw	63%	68%	−4
FK Liepaja clean sheet	30%	–	–
Auda clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.3 10.7 6.7 2.8 1 10.4 13.0 7.8 3.2 2 6.4 7.7 4.7 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Liepaja down, Auda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Virsliga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 158 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 2.26 goals a meeting; 8 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Liepaja at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Auda away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for FK Liepaja, 1.23 for Auda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.26

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 19

~~Both scored~~11 of 19

~~Last meetings~~AUD 1–0 FKL · AUD 3–1 FKL · FKL 1–2 AUD · AUD 1–2 FKL

Form · last six in Virsliga

FK LIEPAJA

WLWDDD3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

AUDA

WDWDWD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	31	+51	77
2	Riga	32	+58	76
3	Auda	31	+19	61
4	FK Liepaja	31	−2	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	31	−10	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	−19	32
8	Grobiņa	32	−32	26
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	32	−47	18