BFC Daugavpils v Auda prediction · Virsliga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30

BFC Daugavpils 2–1 Auda AUDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Auda win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.703

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.717

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Auda win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Auda was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 32–29–39
1′KICK-OFF BFC Daugavpils v Auda
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Auda
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Auda win 36%)
45′We said Auda at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–23–8
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Auda
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Auda win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' BFC Daugavpils win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 43%)
45′HALF-TIME BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Auda
45′SECOND HALF BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Auda
46′7 shots for Auda, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
46′Daniel Kiwinda scores for BFC Daugavpils on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 69–23–8
46′Daniel Kiwinda scores for BFC Daugavpils on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
48′9 shots for Auda, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
53′A goal for Auda on 52′. 1–0 · 72–22–6
54′⚽ GOAL · 52' BFC Daugavpils 1–1 Auda
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Auda win: 39% at kick-off, 28% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was BFC Daugavpils win 72%)
55′53′: Andrews Appiah on the scoresheet for Auda, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–50–27
55′We said Auda at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 23–50–27
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 74–21–5
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' BFC Daugavpils 2–1 Auda
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Auda win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' BFC Daugavpils win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 52%)
59′BFC Daugavpils ahead on 57′ through Ervins pinaskins. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–21–5
61′We said Auda at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Auda · On: Eduards Daskevics · Off: Mahamoud Fofana
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Auda · On: Mohamed Fofana · Off: Jevgenijs Miņins
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Auda · On: Alexander Olabanjo Ogunji · Off: Alvis Jaunzems
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Auda · On: Edvin Bongemba · Off: Wally Fofana
73′Auda have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tin Hrvoj · Auda
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Auda · On: Moussa ouedraogo · Off: ralfs kragliks
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' BFC Daugavpils · On: Doukumo Ayebadiepreye · Off: Kader abdoul traore
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Auda at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME BFC Daugavpils 2–1 Auda
FTBFC Daugavpils 2–1 Auda · Auda win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BFC Daugavpils 32%, draw 29%, Auda 39%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on BFC Daugavpils v AudaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

BFC Daugavpils win32%

Draw29%

Auda win39%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueCeltnieks

Line-ups

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

Auda

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BFC Daugavpils

Auda

8Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Virsliga

Last match: 12 Oct · Virsliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Auda	32	+20	64
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BFC Daugavpils

4-2-3-1

12 J. Beks

37 Gļebs Mihaļcovs

5 Omar Gningue

20 Ceti Junior Taty Tchibinda

34 Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand

8 R. Skrebels

4 W. Mukwelle

11 J. Yakubu

19 E. Pinaskins

9 A. Traore

97 D. Kiwinda

Coach · K. Kurbatovs

Substitutes

58 · Vladislavs Razumejevs

42 · A. Saveljevs

77 · R. Aizups

3 · D. Ayebadiepreye

6 · Ņ. Barkovskis

66 · K. Bujanovs

33 · D. Cucurs

27 · M. Kopilovs

2 · nikita ogijenko

Auda

4-1-4-1

1 R. Stūriņš

2 T. Hrvoj

6 R. Kragliks

3 D. Balodis

66 A. Jaunzems

14 H. Ibrahim

23 M. Fofana

10 W. Fofana

77 J. Miņins

46 J. Gerold

7 A. Appiah

Coach · Didier Zanetti

Substitutes

80 · S. Aranda

21 · R. Bocs

8 · E. Bongemba

17 · E. Dašķevičs

42 · M. Fofana

22 · O. Ogunji

4 · M. Ouedraogo

20 · Youba Traore

12 · N. Aleksandrovs

Our number · auda winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Auda a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BFC Daugavpils v Auda~~1.06 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 42 v 64~~5 v 3

~~The market · Auda win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Auda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFC Daugavpils win	32%	32%	0
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Auda win	39%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	58%	−18
Both teams to score	46%	60%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	66%	80%	−14
Over 3.5 goals	20%	37%	−17
BFC Daugavpils or draw	61%	57%	+4
BFC Daugavpils clean sheet	30%	–	–
Auda clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.6 12.3 7.6 3.1 1 10.7 13.2 7.9 3.2 2 5.8 6.9 4.2 3 2.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFC Daugavpils down, Auda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,002 Virsliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Virsliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.6% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFC Daugavpils at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Auda away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for BFC Daugavpils, 1.22 for Auda. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BFC 2–2 AUD · AUD 1–0 BFC · BFC 0–1 AUD · AUD 2–3 BFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Virsliga this season · since 22 Aug

BFC DAUGAVPILS

DLDLDW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

AUDA

DWDWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rīgas FS	32	+55	80
2	Riga	33	+59	79
3	Auda	32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	0	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	+1	42
6	Super Nova	33	−15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	−22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	−31	29
9	Tukums	32	−19	24
10	Ogre United	33	−48	18