Valmiera / BSS v Tukums II prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Valmiera / BSS 2–2 Tukums II VALMIERA / BSS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valmiera / BSS win~~90%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.680

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valmiera / BSS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valmiera / BSS 90%, draw 7%, Tukums II 4%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Valmiera / BSS v Tukums IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Valmiera / BSS win90%

Draw7%

Tukums II win4%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valmiera / BSS

Tukums II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
11	Tukums II	22	−34	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · valmiera / bss winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

90% The market83%

Us90%

~~Market~~83%

We make Valmiera / BSS a 90% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valmiera / BSS v Tukums II~~4.49 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 52 v 18~~2 v 11

~~The market · Valmiera / BSS win~~83% · ours 90%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valmiera / BSS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valmiera / BSS win	90%	83%	+7
Draw	7%	11%	−4
Tukums II win	4%	6%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	89%	79%	+10
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	96%	91%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	76%	62%	+14
Valmiera / BSS or draw	96%	94%	+2
Valmiera / BSS clean sheet	41%	–	–
Tukums II clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 7.1%

0123450 1 2.4 2.5 2 5.1 4.6 2.1 3 6.8 6.1 2.8 4 7.1 6.3 2.9 5 6.2 5.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Valmiera / BSS down, Tukums II across0–5 goals a side shown (70.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 1. Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valmiera / BSS at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tukums II away: 1.00 scored, 4.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.49 goals for Valmiera / BSS, 0.92 for Tukums II. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TUK 1–4 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug

VALMIERA / BSS

WWDWLD4–1 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1

TUKUMS II

LLLWWL2–6 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	23	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Skanste	23	−2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	−6	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	22	−34	18
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6