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Valmiera / BSS v Super Nova 2

Valmiera / BSS

1–1Full time

Super Nova 2

1. Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Valmiera / BSS 1–1 Super Nova 2 VALMIERA / BSS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valmiera / BSS win~~75%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.283

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.456

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Valmiera / BSS win75%

Draw15%

Super Nova 2 win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · valmiera / bss winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

75% The market83%

Us75%

~~Market~~83%

We make Valmiera / BSS a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · valmiera / bss win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valmiera / BSS win	75%	83%	−8
Draw	15%	12%	+3
Super Nova 2 win	10%	5%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	47%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	51%	57%	−7
Valmiera / BSS or draw	90%	95%	−5
Valmiera / BSS clean sheet	40%	–	–
Super Nova 2 clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.3%

0123450 3.2 2.0 1 6.6 6.8 3.0 2 9.3 8.3 3.9 3 8.4 7.5 3.5 4 5.9 5.3 2.5 5 3.5 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Valmiera / BSS down, Super Nova 2 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 1. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valmiera / BSS at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Super Nova 2 away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.82 goals for Valmiera / BSS, 0.93 for Super Nova 2. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SUP 0–0 VAL

Form · last six in 1. Liga

VALMIERA / BSS

WWWDWL4–1 · 4–1 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–4

SUPER NOVA 2

WLDLDL2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	21	+72	54
2	Valmiera / BSS	21	+37	51
3	Leevon / PPK	21	+18	49
4	Riga Mariners	21	+27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	+11	37
6	Mārupe	21	+2	29
7	Skanste	21	+1	26
8	Riga FC II	21	−8	26
9	Super Nova 2	21	−4	25
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16
12	JFK Ventspils	21	−20	15
13	Rīgas FS II	21	−28	15
14	Rēzekne FA	21	−47	6