Valmiera / BSS v JFK Ventspils prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Valmiera / BSS 3–0 JFK Ventspils VALMIERA / BSS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Valmiera / BSS win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.088

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Valmiera / BSS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Valmiera / BSS 76%, draw 15%, JFK Ventspils 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Valmiera / BSS v JFK VentspilsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Valmiera / BSS win76%

Draw15%

JFK Ventspils win9%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Valmiera / BSS

JFK Ventspils

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	+37	53
13	JFK Ventspils	23	−24	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · valmiera / bss winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Valmiera / BSS a 76% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Valmiera / BSS v JFK Ventspils~~2.69 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 53 v 16~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Valmiera / BSS win

Published at 79%, 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Valmiera / BSS win	76%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
JFK Ventspils win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Valmiera / BSS or draw	91%	–	–
Valmiera / BSS clean sheet	47%	–	–
JFK Ventspils clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 4.1 2.2 1 8.4 7.1 2.6 2 11.2 8.4 3.3 3 9.8 7.2 2.8 4 6.6 4.8 5 3.8 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Valmiera / BSS down, JFK Ventspils across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 1. Liga matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Valmiera / BSS at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). JFK Ventspils away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Valmiera / BSS, 0.77 for JFK Ventspils. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~JFK 0–2 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 30 Aug

VALMIERA / BSS

WDWLDD6–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–2

JFK VENTSPILS

LLWLLD1–4 · 0–7 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	23	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	23	−2	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	−24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6