Tukums II v Super Nova 2
Tukums IISuper Nova 21. Liga · THU 22 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Super Nova 2 are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Tukums II 29%, draw 23%, Super Nova 2 47%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 03:48 · postponed, not graded
Tukums II win29%Super Nova 2 win47%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 24
Match timeline
All events
Tukums IIMINSuper Nova 2Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Tukums II
Super Nova 2
Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga
Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 23 | −6 | 26 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 23 | −34 | 19 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Super Nova 2 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums II win | 29% | 47% | −18 |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 0 |
| Super Nova 2 win | 47% | 30% | +17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 68% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 85% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Tukums II or draw | 53% | 70% | −17 |
| Tukums II clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
| Super Nova 2 clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 23 Aug
TUKUMS II
SUPER NOVA 2
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 23 | +78 | 60 |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 23 | +37 | 53 |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 23 | +22 | 53 |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 23 | +24 | 50 |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 23 | +13 | 41 |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 23 | +3 | 33 |
| 7 |  Riga FC II | 23 | −3 | 30 |
| 8 |  Skanste | 23 | −2 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 23 | −6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Smiltene | 23 | −27 | 20 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 23 | −34 | 19 |
| 12 |  Rīgas FS II | 23 | −28 | 18 |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 23 | −24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 23 | −53 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.