Super Nova 2 v Metta / LU prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Super Nova 2 1–3 Metta / LU METTA / LU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metta / LU win~~76%

~~The market said~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.088

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.026

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metta / LU win at 76%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Metta / LU 76% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 10–14–76
1′KICK-OFF Super Nova 2 v Metta / LU
21′A goal for Metta / LU on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–89
21′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–1 · 3–8–89
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Super Nova 2 0–1 Metta / LU
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Metta / LU win: 76% at kick-off, 89% now
28′Metta / LU score on 28′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–97
28′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 1–3–97
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Super Nova 2 0–2 Metta / LU
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Metta / LU win: 76% at kick-off, 97% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–2 · 1–2–97
43′Super Nova 2 find the net on 42′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–10–88
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Super Nova 2 1–2 Metta / LU
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Metta / LU win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
45′HALF-TIME Super Nova 2 1–2 Metta / LU
46′SECOND HALF Super Nova 2 1–2 Metta / LU
73′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′Super Nova 2 pull one back on 42′ through A. Baghdasaryan. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
80′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–2 · 0–7–92
84′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′A goal for Metta / LU on 87′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Super Nova 2 1–3 Metta / LU
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Metta / LU win: 76% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′We said Metta / LU at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Super Nova 2 1–3 Metta / LU
FTSuper Nova 2 1–3 Metta / LU · Metta / LU win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metta / LU are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Super Nova 2 10%, draw 14%, Metta / LU 76%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Super Nova 2 v Metta / LUBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Super Nova 2 win10%

Draw14%

Metta / LU win76%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 23

VenueSporta centrs Krasts

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Super Nova 2

Metta / LU

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metta / lu winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market87%

Us76%

~~Market~~87%

We make Metta / LU a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–3.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Super Nova 2 v Metta / LU~~0.99 – 3.03

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 26 v 57~~9 v 1

~~The market · Metta / LU win~~87% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metta / LU win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Super Nova 2 win	10%	3%	+7
Draw	14%	9%	+5
Metta / LU win	76%	87%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	37%	+22
Over 1.5 goals	90%	88%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Super Nova 2 or draw	24%	13%	+11
Super Nova 2 clean sheet	6%	–	–
Metta / LU clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 8.2%

0123450 2.6 5.4 8.2 8.0 6.0 3.81 6.0 7.9 7.5 5.6 3.52 2.9 4.0 3.8 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Super Nova 2 down, Metta / LU across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 947 1. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 10.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Super Nova 2 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Metta / LU away: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Super Nova 2, 3.03 for Metta / LU. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~10.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MET 7–3 SUP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 15 Aug

SUPER NOVA 2

LDLDLD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

METTA / LU

WWDWWW2–0 · 6–0 · 2–2 · 7–0 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	22	+76	57
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	22	+23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	22	−3	29
8	Skanste	22	−1	26
9	Super Nova 2	22	−4	26
10	Smiltene	22	−27	19
11	Tukums II	22	−34	18
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6