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Smiltene v Tukums II

Smiltene

3–2Full time

Tukums II

1. Liga · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Smiltene 3–2 Tukums II SMILTENE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Smiltene win~~59%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Smiltene win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Smiltene v Tukums II
2′Much as we predicted: Smiltene was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–18–22
3′Much as we predicted: Smiltene was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–18–22
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Smiltene 0–1 Tukums II
19′A goal for Tukums II on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–22–43
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Tukums II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Smiltene win 35%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 60% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Smiltene win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tukums II win 22%)
20′A goal for Tukums II on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 35–22–43
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Tukums II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Smiltene win 35%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 60% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Smiltene win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tukums II win 22%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Smiltene 1–1 Tukums II
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II
40′Smiltene find the net on 37′. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–15–8
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Smiltene win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Tukums II win 8%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Tukums II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Smiltene win 35%)
41′Smiltene find the net on 37′. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–15–8
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Smiltene win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Tukums II win 8%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Tukums II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Smiltene win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II
46′SECOND HALF Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Smiltene win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Smiltene 2–2 Tukums II
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Smiltene 2–2 Tukums II · E. Sprukts
61′⚽ GOAL · 59' Smiltene 2–2 Tukums II · E. Sprukts
62′⚽ GOAL · 59' Smiltene 2–2 Tukums II · E. Sprukts
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Smiltene 3–2 Tukums II
FTFULL TIME Smiltene 3–2 Tukums II
FTSmiltene 3–2 Tukums II · Smiltene win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Smiltene win59%

Draw18%

Tukums II win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Smiltene

Tukums II

22Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · smiltene winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

59% The market49%

Us59%

~~Market~~49%

We make Smiltene a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · smiltene win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smiltene win	59%	49%	+10
Draw	18%	24%	−5
Tukums II win	23%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	80%	70%	+9
Both teams to score	74%	70%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	93%	87%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	62%	52%	+11
Smiltene or draw	77%	72%	+5
Smiltene clean sheet	20%	–	–
Tukums II clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 2.0 1 3.3 6.4 4.8 2.6 2 4.7 7.4 6.0 3.3 3 4.1 6.4 5.2 2.9 4 2.8 4.4 3.5 5 2.5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Smiltene down, Tukums II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 1. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.7% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.89 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smiltene at home: 1.83 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tukums II away: 0.83 scored, 4.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.74 goals for Smiltene, 1.65 for Tukums II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TUK 1–1 SMI · SMI 0–3 TUK · TUK 1–2 SMI · TUK 1–2 SMI

Form · last six in 1. Liga

SMILTENE

LLLLWW1–4 · 2–4 · 0–6 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 2–0

TUKUMS II

LLLLWW2–4 · 2–6 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	22	+76	57
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	22	+23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Skanste	22	−1	26
8	Super Nova 2	22	−4	26
9	Riga FC II	21	−8	26
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	21	−47	6