Smiltene v Riga FC II prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Smiltene 2–2 Riga FC II RIGA FC II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Riga FC II win~~47%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.921

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.944

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga FC II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Smiltene 30%, draw 22%, Riga FC II 47%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Smiltene v Riga FC IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Smiltene win30%

Draw22%

Riga FC II win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Smiltene

Riga FC II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Riga FC II	22	−3	29
10	Smiltene	22	−27	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riga fc ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Riga FC II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Smiltene v Riga FC II~~1.60 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 29~~10 v 7

~~The market · Riga FC II win~~52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Riga FC II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smiltene win	30%	26%	+4
Draw	22%	22%	0
Riga FC II win	47%	52%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Both teams to score	68%	68%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Smiltene or draw	53%	48%	+5
Smiltene clean sheet	14%	–	–
Riga FC II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 5.1 5.6 3.8 1 3.9 9.2 8.4 5.7 2.9 2 3.5 6.6 6.5 4.4 2.3 3 3.6 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smiltene down, Riga FC II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 947 1. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.11 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smiltene at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Riga FC II away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Smiltene, 2.02 for Riga FC II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.11

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RIG 2–0 SMI · RIG 0–2 SMI · SMI 5–1 RIG · SMI 0–3 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 23 Aug

SMILTENE

LLLWWW2–4 · 0–6 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

RIGA FC II

LDWDDW1–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	22	+76	57
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	22	+23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	22	−3	29
8	Skanste	22	−1	26
9	Super Nova 2	22	−4	26
10	Smiltene	22	−27	19
11	Tukums II	22	−34	18
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6