Smiltene v Mārupe prediction · 1. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SmilteneDrawMārupe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Smiltene 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Smiltene are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Smiltene 42%, draw 23%, Mārupe 35%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Smiltene v MārupeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Smiltene win42%

Draw23%

Mārupe win35%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Smiltene

Mārupe

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mārupe	24	−2	33
10	Smiltene	24	−25	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · smiltene winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Smiltene a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Smiltene v Mārupe~~1.81 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 33~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smiltene win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Mārupe win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Smiltene or draw	65%	–	–
Smiltene clean sheet	21%	–	–
Mārupe clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.3 5.0 4.5 2.4 1 5.5 10.0 7.5 4.1 2 5.3 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 3.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smiltene down, Mārupe across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 959 1. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smiltene at home: 2.17 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mārupe away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Smiltene, 1.62 for Mārupe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–1 SMI · MAR 0–3 SMI · SMI 1–2 MAR · MAR 0–0 SMI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug

SMILTENE

LWWWDW2–3 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

MĀRUPE

LWDWDL0–2 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	24	+80	63
2	Valmiera / BSS	24	+40	56
3	Riga Mariners	24	+29	53
4	Leevon / PPK	24	+20	53
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	24	−2	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	24	−4	26
10	Smiltene	24	−25	23
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	24	−27	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6