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Skanste v JDFS Alberts

Skanste

0–2Full time

JDFS Alberts

1. Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Skanste 0–2 JDFS Alberts JDFS ALBERTS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JDFS Alberts win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JDFS Alberts win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Skanste v JDFS Alberts
11′Much as we predicted: JDFS Alberts was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
45′HALF-TIME Skanste 0–0 JDFS Alberts
47′SECOND HALF Skanste 0–0 JDFS Alberts
56′We expected about 3.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–40–33
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' JDFS Alberts win: 44% at kick-off, 33% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was JDFS Alberts win 33%)
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Skanste 0–1 JDFS Alberts
72′63′ and it is 0–1: K. Pirktins on the scoresheet for JDFS Alberts. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' JDFS Alberts win: 44% at kick-off, 80% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' JDFS Alberts win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
86′⚽ GOAL · 63' Skanste 0–1 JDFS Alberts · K. Pirktins
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Skanste 0–2 JDFS Alberts
90′JDFS Alberts ahead on 89′ through R. Ozolins. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' JDFS Alberts win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Skanste 0–2 JDFS Alberts
FTSkanste 0–2 JDFS Alberts · JDFS Alberts win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Skanste win33%

Draw23%

JDFS Alberts win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jdfs alberts winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market55%

Us44%

~~Market~~55%

We make JDFS Alberts a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jdfs alberts win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skanste win	33%	22%	+10
Draw	23%	23%	+1
JDFS Alberts win	44%	55%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	66%	67%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Skanste or draw	56%	45%	+11
Skanste clean sheet	17%	–	–
JDFS Alberts clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 5.6 5.6 3.4 1 4.7 9.9 8.3 5.1 2.5 2 4.1 7.1 6.4 4.0 3 2.2 3.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skanste down, JDFS Alberts across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 1. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.22 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skanste at home: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). JDFS Alberts away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Skanste, 1.87 for JDFS Alberts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~JDF 4–1 SKA · JDF 2–2 SKA · SKA 1–1 JDF · JDF 0–1 SKA

Form · last six in 1. Liga

SKANSTE

WDWLWL5–1 · 1–1 · 6–2 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 0–1

JDFS ALBERTS

WWWWLL2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	21	+72	54
2	Valmiera / BSS	21	+37	51
3	Leevon / PPK	21	+18	49
4	Riga Mariners	21	+27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	+11	37
6	Mārupe	21	+2	29
7	Skanste	21	+1	26
8	Riga FC II	21	−8	26
9	Super Nova 2	21	−4	25
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16
12	JFK Ventspils	21	−20	15
13	Rīgas FS II	21	−28	15
14	Rēzekne FA	21	−47	6