Riga Mariners v JDFS Alberts prediction · 1. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Riga MarinersDrawJDFS Alberts

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Riga Mariners 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga Mariners are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riga Mariners 52%, draw 22%, JDFS Alberts 26%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Riga Mariners v JDFS AlbertsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Riga Mariners win52%

Draw22%

JDFS Alberts win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riga Mariners

JDFS Alberts

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Riga Mariners	24	+29	53
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riga mariners winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Riga Mariners a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riga Mariners v JDFS Alberts~~2.14 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 41~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riga Mariners win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
JDFS Alberts win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Riga Mariners or draw	74%	–	–
Riga Mariners clean sheet	24%	–	–
JDFS Alberts clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.6 3.7 3.1 1 5.5 9.1 6.1 3.0 2 6.2 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.4 6.1 4.4 2.2 4 2.4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Riga Mariners down, JDFS Alberts across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 959 1. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riga Mariners at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). JDFS Alberts away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Riga Mariners, 1.47 for JDFS Alberts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JDF 0–4 RIG · RIG 1–0 JDF · JDF 2–0 RIG · RIG 4–2 JDF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug

RIGA MARINERS

WLWLWW5–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 6–1

JDFS ALBERTS

WWLLWD2–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	24	+80	63
2	Valmiera / BSS	24	+40	56
3	Riga Mariners	24	+29	53
4	Leevon / PPK	24	+20	53
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	24	−2	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	24	−4	26
10	Smiltene	24	−25	23
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	24	−27	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6