Riga FC II v Rīgas FS II prediction · 1. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Riga FC IIDrawRīgas FS II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Riga FC II 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga FC II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riga FC II 58%, draw 20%, Rīgas FS II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Riga FC II v Rīgas FS IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Riga FC II win58%

Draw20%

Rīgas FS II win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riga FC II

Rīgas FS II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riga fc ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Riga FC II a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riga FC II v Rīgas FS II~~2.45 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 30 v 18~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riga FC II win	58%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Rīgas FS II win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Riga FC II or draw	78%	–	–
Riga FC II clean sheet	24%	–	–
Rīgas FS II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.9 2.8 2.4 1 4.7 7.8 5.3 2.6 2 6.0 8.4 6.0 3.0 3 4.8 6.6 4.7 2.3 4 3.0 4.1 2.9 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Riga FC II down, Rīgas FS II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 959 1. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riga FC II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rīgas FS II away: 2.00 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Riga FC II, 1.46 for Rīgas FS II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~Rīgas FS II 1–3 Riga FC II · Rīgas FS II 1–0 Riga FC II · Riga FC II 2–2 Rīgas FS II · Riga FC II 1–1 Rīgas FS II

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug

RIGA FC II

DWDDWD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 2–2

RĪGAS FS II

LWLLLW1–3 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 3–6 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	24	+80	63
2	Valmiera / BSS	24	+40	56
3	Leevon / PPK	24	+20	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	24	−4	26
10	Smiltene	24	−25	23
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	24	−27	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6