Rēzekne FA v Rīgas FS II prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Rēzekne FA 0–1 Rīgas FS II RĪGAS FS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rīgas FS II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rīgas FS II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rēzekne FA 22%, draw 19%, Rīgas FS II 59%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Rēzekne FA v Rīgas FS IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rēzekne FA win22%

Draw19%

Rīgas FS II win59%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rēzekne FA

Rīgas FS II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rīgas fs ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Rīgas FS II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rēzekne FA v Rīgas FS II~~1.60 – 2.66

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 15~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rēzekne FA win	22%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Rīgas FS II win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Rēzekne FA or draw	41%	–	–
Rēzekne FA clean sheet	8%	–	–
Rīgas FS II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 2.2 3.7 5.2 4.5 2.9 1 2.1 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.4 2.42 4.8 6.0 5.2 3.4 3 2.6 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rēzekne FA down, Rīgas FS II across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 1. Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rēzekne FA at home: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rīgas FS II away: 1.83 scored, 4.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Rēzekne FA, 2.66 for Rīgas FS II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RIG 3–0 REZ · REZ 0–0 RIG · RIG 1–2 REZ · REZ 0–2 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug

RĒZEKNE FA

LLLDLL0–2 · 1–6 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–5

RĪGAS FS II

LLWLLL1–3 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 3–6 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	23	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	+37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Skanste	23	−2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	−6	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	22	−34	18
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6