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Metta / LU v Riga Mariners

Metta / LU

4–0Full time

Riga Mariners

1. Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Metta / LU 4–0 Riga Mariners METTA / LU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metta / LU win~~74%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.105

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metta / LU win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Metta / LU was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–13–12
1′KICK-OFF Metta / LU v Riga Mariners
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Metta / LU 1–0 Riga Mariners
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Metta / LU 2–0 Riga Mariners
31′R. Klavinskis scores for Metta / LU on 28′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Metta / LU win: 74% at kick-off, 96% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Metta / LU 3–0 Riga Mariners
45′43′ and it is 3–0: P. Amoah on the scoresheet for Metta / LU. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Metta / LU 3–0 Riga Mariners
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Metta / LU 4–0 Riga Mariners
46′SECOND HALF Metta / LU 4–0 Riga Mariners
FTFULL TIME Metta / LU 4–0 Riga Mariners
FTMetta / LU 4–0 Riga Mariners · Metta / LU win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Metta / LU win74%

Draw14%

Riga Mariners win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metta / lu winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

74% The market73%

Us74%

~~Market~~73%

We make Metta / LU a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · metta / lu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metta / LU win	74%	73%	+1
Draw	14%	16%	−2
Riga Mariners win	13%	11%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Both teams to score	70%	62%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	94%	90%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	67%	58%	+9
Metta / LU or draw	87%	89%	−2
Metta / LU clean sheet	27%	–	–
Riga Mariners clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.2%

0123450 1 3.1 4.7 3.0 2 5.3 6.8 4.6 2.1 3 5.6 7.2 4.8 2.2 4 4.6 5.9 3.9 5 3.1 4.0 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Metta / LU down, Riga Mariners across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 1. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metta / LU at home: 7.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Riga Mariners away: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.32 goals for Metta / LU, 1.35 for Riga Mariners. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RIG 2–2 MET

Form · last six in 1. Liga

METTA / LU

WWWDWW12–1 · 2–0 · 6–0 · 2–2 · 7–0 · 3–1

RIGA MARINERS

WWWWLW4–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 1–4 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	21	+72	54
2	Valmiera / BSS	21	+37	51
3	Leevon / PPK	21	+18	49
4	Riga Mariners	21	+27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	+11	37
6	Mārupe	21	+2	29
7	Skanste	21	+1	26
8	Riga FC II	21	−8	26
9	Super Nova 2	21	−4	25
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16
12	JFK Ventspils	21	−20	15
13	Rīgas FS II	21	−28	15
14	Rēzekne FA	21	−47	6