Metta / LU v Leevon / PPK prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Metta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK METTA / LU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metta / LU win~~82%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.049

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.070

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metta / LU win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Metta / LU 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–11–7
1′KICK-OFF Metta / LU v Leevon / PPK
5′A goal for Metta / LU on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–5–3
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Metta / LU 1–0 Leevon / PPK
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Metta / LU win: 82% at kick-off, 93% now
42′Metta / LU score on 42′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Metta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK
43′We said Metta / LU at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
43′The goal count is tracking the 4.6 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Metta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK
46′SECOND HALF Metta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK
80′We said Metta / LU at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Metta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK
FTMetta / LU 2–0 Leevon / PPK · Metta / LU win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metta / LU are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metta / LU 82%, draw 11%, Leevon / PPK 7%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Metta / LU v Leevon / PPKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Metta / LU win82%

Draw11%

Leevon / PPK win7%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metta / LU

Leevon / PPK

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metta / lu winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

82% The market79%

Us82%

~~Market~~79%

We make Metta / LU an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metta / LU v Leevon / PPK~~3.61 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 60 v 53~~1 v 3

~~The market · Metta / LU win~~79% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metta / LU win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metta / LU win	82%	79%	+3
Draw	11%	13%	−2
Leevon / PPK win	7%	8%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	94%	90%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	67%	58%	+9
Metta / LU or draw	93%	92%	+1
Metta / LU clean sheet	36%	–	–
Leevon / PPK clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.6 4.2 2.0 2 6.5 6.5 3.4 3 7.4 7.4 3.8 4 6.4 6.4 3.3 5 4.7 4.6 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Metta / LU down, Leevon / PPK across0–5 goals a side shown (83.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 1. Liga matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metta / LU at home: 7.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leevon / PPK away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.61 goals for Metta / LU, 1.04 for Leevon / PPK. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LEE 1–3 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 29 Aug

METTA / LU

WDWWWW6–0 · 2–2 · 7–0 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

LEEVON / PPK

WWDWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	23	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	23	−2	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	−24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6