Mārupe v Riga Mariners prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Mārupe 1–6 Riga Mariners RIGA MARINERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Riga Mariners win~~50%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Riga Mariners win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Riga Mariners 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
1′KICK-OFF Mārupe v Riga Mariners
31′Riga Mariners find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–75
31′We said Riga Mariners at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 9–17–75
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Mārupe 0–1 Riga Mariners
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Riga Mariners win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–75
41′A goal for Riga Mariners on 40′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–93
41′We said Riga Mariners at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 2–6–93
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Mārupe 0–2 Riga Mariners
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Riga Mariners win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
42′A. Grazis scores for Riga Mariners on 41′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–93
45′HALF-TIME Mārupe 0–2 Riga Mariners
46′SECOND HALF Mārupe 0–2 Riga Mariners
53′Riga Mariners score on 52′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
53′We said Riga Mariners at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mārupe 0–3 Riga Mariners
63′We said Riga Mariners at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Riga Mariners win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
68′Riga Mariners find the net on 68′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Mārupe 0–4 Riga Mariners
76′A goal for Mārupe on 76′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Mārupe 1–4 Riga Mariners
77′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
84′Riga Mariners score on 84′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Mārupe 1–5 Riga Mariners
85′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
86′Riga Mariners find the net on 86′. 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Mārupe 1–6 Riga Mariners
87′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Mārupe 1–6 Riga Mariners
FTMārupe 1–6 Riga Mariners · Riga Mariners win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riga Mariners are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mārupe 26%, draw 24%, Riga Mariners 50%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Mārupe v Riga MarinersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mārupe win26%

Draw24%

Riga Mariners win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mārupe

Riga Mariners

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
6	Mārupe	23	+3	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riga mariners winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market62%

Us50%

~~Market~~62%

We make Riga Mariners a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mārupe v Riga Mariners~~1.29 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 33 v 50~~6 v 4

~~The market · Riga Mariners win~~62% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Riga Mariners win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mārupe win	26%	18%	+8
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Riga Mariners win	50%	62%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	87%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
Mārupe or draw	50%	38%	+12
Mārupe clean sheet	16%	–	–
Riga Mariners clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.3 7.4 7.4 4.6 2.3 1 5.0 10.6 9.1 5.7 2.8 2 3.6 6.4 5.8 3.6 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mārupe down, Riga Mariners across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 1. Liga matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mārupe at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Riga Mariners away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Mārupe, 1.88 for Riga Mariners. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RIG 2–0 MAR · RIG 3–1 MAR · MAR 1–2 RIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug

MĀRUPE

LLWDWD1–4 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0

RIGA MARINERS

WWLWLW3–1 · 5–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	24	+80	63
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	24	+20	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	−3	29
9	Skanste	23	−2	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	24	−37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	−28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	−24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	−53	6