Leevon / PPK v JDFS Alberts prediction · 1. Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Leevon / PPK 2–2 JDFS Alberts LEEVON / PPK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leevon / PPK win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leevon / PPK win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leevon / PPK was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Leevon / PPK v JDFS Alberts
13′Leevon / PPK find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–15
13′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Leevon / PPK 1–0 JDFS Alberts
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
20′A goal for Leevon / PPK on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–5
20′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–5
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Leevon / PPK 2–0 JDFS Alberts
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
39′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Leevon / PPK 2–0 JDFS Alberts
46′SECOND HALF Leevon / PPK 2–0 JDFS Alberts
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 92–7–2
49′JDFS Alberts score on 49′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–21–8
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Leevon / PPK 2–1 JDFS Alberts
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
50′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–8
60′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
70′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
73′A red card for Leevon / PPK on 72′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 82–16–2
73′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Leevon / PPK
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
89′We published Leevon / PPK at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
94′JDFS Alberts find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 2–97–2
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Leevon / PPK 2–2 JDFS Alberts
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Leevon / PPK win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Leevon / PPK win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Leevon / PPK 2–2 JDFS Alberts
FTLeevon / PPK 2–2 JDFS Alberts · Leevon / PPK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leevon / PPK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leevon / PPK 40%, draw 25%, JDFS Alberts 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Leevon / PPK v JDFS AlbertsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leevon / PPK win40%

Draw25%

JDFS Alberts win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leevon / PPK

JDFS Alberts

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leevon / ppk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Leevon / PPK a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leevon / PPK v JDFS Alberts~~1.56 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 52 v 40~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leevon / PPK win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
JDFS Alberts win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Leevon / PPK or draw	65%	–	–
Leevon / PPK clean sheet	25%	–	–
JDFS Alberts clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 6.7 5.3 2.6 1 7.2 11.6 7.8 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.9 2.9 3 3.2 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leevon / PPK down, JDFS Alberts across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 1. Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leevon / PPK at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). JDFS Alberts away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Leevon / PPK, 1.44 for JDFS Alberts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~JDF 0–0 LEE · JDF 1–0 LEE · LEE 0–4 JDF · LEE 0–2 JDF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 22 Aug

LEEVON / PPK

WWWDWW4–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 4–0

JDFS ALBERTS

WWWLLW3–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	23	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	22	+22	52
4	Riga Mariners	23	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	22	+13	40
6	Mārupe	22	+3	32
7	Riga FC II	23	−3	30
8	Skanste	23	−2	26
9	Super Nova 2	23	−6	26
10	Smiltene	23	−27	20
11	Tukums II	23	−34	19
12	JFK Ventspils	22	−24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	−29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	−52	6