

JFK Ventspils v Mārupe
JFK Ventspils
Mārupe1. Liga · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Mārupe win at 38%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Mārupe 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
- 1′KICK-OFF JFK Ventspils v Mārupe
- 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mārupe win 33%)
- 45′HALF-TIME JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
- 46′SECOND HALF JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–48–27
- 57′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
- 62′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
- 71′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
- 77′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
- 83′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 90′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
- FTJFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe · Mārupe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Mārupe are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: JFK Ventspils 33%, draw 29%, Mārupe 38%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
JFK Ventspils win33%
Mārupe win38%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 23
Match timeline
All events
JFK VentspilsMIN
MārupeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
JFK Ventspils
Mārupe
Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga
Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Mārupe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JFK Ventspils win | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Mārupe win | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 59% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 62% | −13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 38% | −14 |
| JFK Ventspils or draw | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| JFK Ventspils clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Mārupe clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 15 Aug
JFK VENTSPILS
MĀRUPE
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 23 | +78 | 60 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 22 | +37 | 52 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 22 | +22 | 52 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 23 | +24 | 50 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 22 | +13 | 40 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | +3 | 32 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | −3 | 30 |
| 8 | Skanste | 23 | −2 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 23 | −6 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 23 | −27 | 20 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 22 | −34 | 18 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | −24 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 22 | −29 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 22 | −52 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Metta / LU
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
Riga Mariners
JDFS Alberts
Riga FC II
Skanste
Super Nova 2
Smiltene
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
Rēzekne FA