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Model 1.2

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JFK Ventspils v Mārupe

JFK Ventspils
0–0Full time
Mārupe

1. Liga · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe MĀRUPE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mārupe win38%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.766
The market’s Brier score0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mārupe win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Mārupe 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF JFK Ventspils v Mārupe
  4. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mārupe win 33%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
  6. 46′SECOND HALF JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
  7. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  8. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–48–27
  9. 57′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
  10. 62′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
  11. 71′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
  12. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  13. 77′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
  14. 83′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
  15. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Mārupe win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  16. 90′We said Mārupe at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  17. FTFULL TIME JFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe
  18. FTJFK Ventspils 0–0 Mārupe · Mārupe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mārupe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JFK Ventspils 33%, draw 29%, Mārupe 38%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on JFK Ventspils v MārupeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JFK Ventspils win33%
Draw29%
Mārupe win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JFK Ventspils

Mārupe

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Mārupe22+332
12JFK Ventspils22−2415

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mārupe winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
38% The market41%
Us38%
Market41%

We make Mārupe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · JFK Ventspils v Mārupe1.18 – 1.28
Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 15 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 15 v 3212 v 6
The market · Mārupe win41% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 14:26
Our probability · Mārupe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
JFK Ventspils win33%33%0
Draw29%26%+3
Mārupe win38%41%−3
Over 2.5 goals44%59%−15
Both teams to score49%62%−13
Over 1.5 goals71%79%−8
Over 3.5 goals24%38%−14
JFK Ventspils or draw62%59%+3
JFK Ventspils clean sheet29%––
Mārupe clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 9.9 10.2 7.0 3.1 1 9.4 13.2 7.8 3.4 2 6.0 7.3 4.6 3 2.5 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+JFK Ventspils down, Mārupe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsMAR 1–2 JFK · JFK 1–0 MAR · MAR 1–2 JFK · JFK 2–3 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga this season · since 15 Aug

JFK VENTSPILS

DLLWLL1–1 · 1–4 · 0–7 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–4

MĀRUPE

WLLWDW2–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Metta / LU23+7860
2Valmiera / BSS22+3752
3Leevon / PPK22+2252
4Riga Mariners23+2450
5JDFS Alberts22+1340
6Mārupe22+332
7Riga FC II23−330
8Skanste23−226
9Super Nova 223−626
10Smiltene23−2720
11Tukums II22−3418
12JFK Ventspils22−2415
13Rīgas FS II22−2915
14Rēzekne FA22−526

The competition's standings before kick-off.