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JFK Ventspils v Leevon / PPK

JFK Ventspils

0–4Full time

Leevon / PPK

1. Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

JFK Ventspils 0–4 Leevon / PPK LEEVON / PPK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leevon / PPK win~~45%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.458

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.209

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leevon / PPK win at 45%.
2′R. Baumanis scores for Leevon / PPK on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–17–71
2′KICK-OFF JFK Ventspils v Leevon / PPK
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Leevon / PPK win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
23′We said Leevon / PPK at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 9–18–73
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' JFK Ventspils 0–2 Leevon / PPK
34′⚽ GOAL · 38' JFK Ventspils 0–3 Leevon / PPK · R. Baumanis
45′HALF-TIME JFK Ventspils 0–3 Leevon / PPK
46′SECOND HALF JFK Ventspils 0–3 Leevon / PPK
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' JFK Ventspils 0–4 Leevon / PPK
FTFULL TIME JFK Ventspils 0–4 Leevon / PPK
FTJFK Ventspils 0–4 Leevon / PPK · Leevon / PPK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

JFK Ventspils win28%

Draw27%

Leevon / PPK win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leevon / ppk winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market63%

Us45%

~~Market~~63%

We make Leevon / PPK a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leevon / ppk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JFK Ventspils win	28%	17%	+11
Draw	27%	20%	+7
Leevon / PPK win	45%	63%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	49%	64%	−15
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	84%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	27%	44%	−17
JFK Ventspils or draw	55%	37%	+18
JFK Ventspils clean sheet	23%	–	–
Leevon / PPK clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.4 10.0 8.0 4.1 1 7.5 12.5 8.6 4.4 2 4.8 6.7 4.9 2.4 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JFK Ventspils down, Leevon / PPK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 1. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JFK Ventspils at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Leevon / PPK away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for JFK Ventspils, 1.51 for Leevon / PPK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LEE 2–1 JFK · LEE 3–2 JFK · JFK 0–0 LEE · JFK 4–1 LEE

Form · last six in 1. Liga

JFK VENTSPILS

LDLLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–7 · 1–0 · 0–1

LEEVON / PPK

WWWWDW1–0 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 6–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metta / LU	21	+72	54
2	Valmiera / BSS	21	+37	51
3	Leevon / PPK	21	+18	49
4	Riga Mariners	21	+27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	+11	37
6	Mārupe	21	+2	29
7	Skanste	21	+1	26
8	Riga FC II	21	−8	26
9	Super Nova 2	21	−4	25
10	Tukums II	21	−33	18
11	Smiltene	21	−28	16
12	JFK Ventspils	21	−20	15
13	Rīgas FS II	21	−28	15
14	Rēzekne FA	21	−47	6