Ezra v Lao Army prediction · Lao League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08

Ezra 3–0 Lao Army EZRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ezra win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ezra win at 77%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ezra 77% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–14–9
1′KICK-OFF Ezra v Lao Army
22′Ezra find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–7–3
22′We said Ezra at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–7–3
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ezra 1–0 Lao Army
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Ezra win: 77% at kick-off, 90% now
23′We said Ezra at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–7–3
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 89–8–3
39′A goal for Ezra on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Ezra 2–0 Lao Army
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ezra win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
40′We said Ezra at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
45′HALF-TIME Ezra 2–0 Lao Army
46′SECOND HALF Ezra 2–0 Lao Army
66′Ezra score on 66′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ezra 3–0 Lao Army
67′We said Ezra at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ezra 3–0 Lao Army
FTEzra 3–0 Lao Army · Ezra win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ezra are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ezra 77%, draw 14%, Lao Army 9%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ezra v Lao ArmyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ezra win77%

Draw14%

Lao Army win9%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ezra

Lao Army

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Lao League

Last match: 10 Oct · Lao League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ezra	1	+2	3
8	Lao Army	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ezra winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Ezra a 77% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ezra v Lao Army~~3.11 – 0.90

~~Form · Lao League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ezra win

Published at 76%, 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ezra win	77%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Lao Army win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Ezra or draw	91%	–	–
Ezra clean sheet	43%	–	–
Lao Army clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.8%

0123450 3.7 2.0 1 6.8 5.7 2.5 2 8.8 7.1 3.3 3 8.2 6.7 3.1 4 6.2 5.1 2.4 5 4.0 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Ezra down, Lao Army across0–5 goals a side shown (87.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 318 Lao League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Lao League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games recently, across 318 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ezra at home: 4.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lao Army away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.11 goals for Ezra, 0.90 for Lao Army. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAO 0–3 EZR · EZR 7–0 LAO · EZR 5–3 LAO · LAO 2–4 EZR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Lao League this season · since 10 Oct

EZRA

W2–0

LAO ARMY

L0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Champasak United	1	+3	3
2	Ezra	1	+2	3
3	Salavan United	1	+2	3
4	Namtha United	1	+1	3
5	Savannakhet	1	0	1
6	Viengchanh	1	0	1
7	Lao Toyota	0	0	0
8	Lao Army	1	−1	0
9	Luangprabang FC	1	−2	0
10	Oudomxay Entremets	1	−2	0
11	Master 7	1	−3	0