Toktogul v Dordoi Bishkek prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ToktogulDrawDordoi Bishkek

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dordoi Bishkek 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dordoi Bishkek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Toktogul 28%, draw 26%, Dordoi Bishkek 46%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Toktogul v Dordoi BishkekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Toktogul win28%

Draw26%

Dordoi Bishkek win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toktogul

Dordoi Bishkek

12Days since last match11

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dordoi bishkek winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Dordoi Bishkek a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Toktogul v Dordoi Bishkek~~1.18 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 31 v 29~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toktogul win	28%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Dordoi Bishkek win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Toktogul or draw	54%	–	–
Toktogul clean sheet	21%	–	–
Dordoi Bishkek clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.4 9.4 7.8 4.1 1 6.9 12.3 9.0 4.7 2 4.5 6.8 5.3 2.8 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toktogul down, Dordoi Bishkek across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 913 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toktogul at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dordoi Bishkek away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Toktogul, 1.57 for Dordoi Bishkek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DOR 2–0 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

TOKTOGUL

WDDLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–3

DORDOI BISHKEK

LWDLLL0–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	27	+36	58
2	Alga	27	+26	56
3	Ozgon	26	+23	54
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
5	Asia Talas	27	+19	52
6	Alay	27	0	41
7	Bishkek City	27	+1	36
8	Neftchi	27	−6	36
9	Talant	27	+6	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29
12	Ilbirs	26	−14	29
13	OshMU Aldier	27	−19	28
14	Asiagoal	27	−11	24
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15
16	Kara-Balta	27	−50	10