Toktogul v Abdish-Ata prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30

Toktogul 2–0 Abdish-Ata ABDISH-ATA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Abdish-Ata win~~38%

~~The market said~~9%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Abdish-Ata win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Abdish-Ata was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Toktogul v Abdish-Ata
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Abdish-Ata win 32%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Toktogul 1–0 Abdish-Ata
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Abdish-Ata win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
46′SECOND HALF Toktogul 1–0 Abdish-Ata
47′Toktogul score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Toktogul 1–0 Abdish-Ata
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Abdish-Ata win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Toktogul win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
48′We said Abdish-Ata at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–22–8
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Abdish-Ata win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Abdish-Ata win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
64′We said Abdish-Ata at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
65′Toktogul find the net on 65′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Toktogul 2–0 Abdish-Ata
FTFULL TIME Toktogul 2–0 Abdish-Ata
FTToktogul 2–0 Abdish-Ata · Abdish-Ata win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Abdish-Ata just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Toktogul 35%, draw 27%, Abdish-Ata 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Toktogul v Abdish-AtaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off

Toktogul win35%

Draw27%

Abdish-Ata win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toktogul

Abdish-Ata

6Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
15	Abdish-Ata	24	−27	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · abdish-ata winFirst published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off

38% The market9%

Us38%

~~Market~~9%

We make Abdish-Ata a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 9%. We are 29 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Toktogul v Abdish-Ata~~1.34 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 15~~12 v 15

~~The market · Abdish-Ata win~~9% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · abdish-ata win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 9% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toktogul win	35%	73%	−38
Draw	27%	18%	+9
Abdish-Ata win	38%	9%	+29
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	42%	+14
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Toktogul or draw	62%	91%	−29
Toktogul clean sheet	25%	–	–
Abdish-Ata clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 8.3 6.4 3.0 1 7.9 12.7 8.2 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.4 2.6 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toktogul down, Abdish-Ata across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 896 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

1 previous meeting since 2026, in every competition we cover: 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toktogul at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Abdish-Ata away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Toktogul, 1.40 for Abdish-Ata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ABD 0–1 TOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Aug

TOKTOGUL

WWWDDL1–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

ABDISH-ATA

LDLLLD1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	25	+34	52
2	Alga	25	+20	52
3	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
4	Ozgon	24	+21	48
5	Muras United	24	+26	47
6	Alay	25	+1	40
7	Talant	25	+8	33
8	Bishkek City	25	−3	30
9	Neftchi	25	−9	30
10	Dordoi Bishkek	24	+3	29
11	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
13	OshMU Aldier	25	−12	28
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	24	−27	15
16	Kara-Balta	25	−48	9