Home › Football › Premier League › Ozgon v Bars

Ozgon v Bars

Ozgon

1–3Full time

Bars

Premier League · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Ozgon 1–3 Bars BARS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bars win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bars win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bars was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 35–22–44
1′KICK-OFF Ozgon v Bars
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ozgon 0–1 Bars
13′12′ and it is 0–1: Bars have scored. 0–1 · 16–18–66
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
15′We published Bars at 43%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 16–18–66
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–19–67
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bars win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ozgon 1–1 Bars
45′HALF-TIME Ozgon 1–1 Bars
46′SECOND HALF Ozgon 1–1 Bars
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ozgon 1–2 Bars
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ozgon 1–3 Bars
FTFULL TIME Ozgon 1–3 Bars
FTOzgon 1–3 Bars · Bars win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

Ozgon win34%

Draw23%

Bars win43%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ozgon

Bars

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	24	+32	49
4	Ozgon	23	+23	48

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bars winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Bars a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ozgon win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bars win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Ozgon or draw	57%	–	–
Ozgon clean sheet	15%	–	–
Bars clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 4.5 4.9 3.2 1 3.9 9.1 8.1 5.2 2.6 2 3.8 7.2 6.8 4.4 2.2 3 2.2 4.1 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ozgon down, Bars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ozgon at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bars away: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Ozgon, 1.96 for Bars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–1 OZG · OZG 0–1 BAR · BAR 0–0 OZG

Form · last six in Premier League

OZGON

LWLWWW2–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 5–0 · 3–2

BARS

WWLWWW3–1 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 6–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	24	+32	49
2	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
3	Alga	24	+19	49
4	Ozgon	23	+23	48
5	Muras United	23	+27	47
6	Alay	25	+1	40
7	Talant	25	+8	33
8	Bishkek City	25	−3	30
9	Neftchi	25	−9	30
10	Dordoi Bishkek	24	+3	29
11	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
13	OshMU Aldier	25	−12	28
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	24	−27	15
16	Kara-Balta	25	−48	9