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Neftchi v Toktogul

Neftchi

3–2Full time

Toktogul

Premier League · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 16:30

Neftchi 3–2 Toktogul NEFTCHI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neftchi win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Neftchi win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Neftchi 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Neftchi v Toktogul
18′A goal for Toktogul on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–61
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Neftchi 0–1 Toktogul
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Toktogul win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Neftchi win 39%)
19′We said Neftchi at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–61
28′We said Neftchi at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
41′Neftchi score on 41′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–38–28
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Neftchi 1–1 Toktogul
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Toktogul win 66%)
45′We said Neftchi at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–1 · 73–20–7
45′HALF-TIME Neftchi 2–1 Toktogul
46′SECOND HALF Neftchi 2–1 Toktogul
47′A goal for Toktogul on 47′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 33–41–27
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 33–41–27
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Neftchi 2–2 Toktogul
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 33% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Neftchi win 73%)
51′Neftchi find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–6
51′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Neftchi 2–1 Toktogul
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+6' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 43%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
52′We said Neftchi at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
53′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Neftchi
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Toktogul
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 44%)
54′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Toktogul
66′We said Neftchi at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
70′A goal for Toktogul on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 22–60–18
70′We said Neftchi at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–60–18
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Neftchi 2–2 Toktogul
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 22% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Neftchi win 81%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
80′Neftchi score on 80′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Neftchi 3–2 Toktogul
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 76%)
81′We said Neftchi at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Neftchi
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Neftchi win 93%)
91′We said Neftchi at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
93′Neftchi score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Neftchi 3–2 Toktogul
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Neftchi win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Neftchi win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
94′We said Neftchi at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Neftchi 3–2 Toktogul
FTNeftchi 3–2 Toktogul · Neftchi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neftchi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neftchi 41%, draw 27%, Toktogul 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Neftchi v ToktogulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 10:31 · locked at kick-off

Neftchi win41%

Draw27%

Toktogul win32%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neftchi

Toktogul

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Neftchi	26	−7	33
10	Toktogul	25	−9	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neftchi winFirst published 19 Oct 10:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Neftchi a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neftchi v Toktogul~~1.44 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 18 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 31~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftchi win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Toktogul win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Neftchi or draw	68%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	29%	–	–
Toktogul clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.2 1 9.1 12.8 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.5 5.3 2.2 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftchi down, Toktogul across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 904 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 205 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftchi at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Toktogul away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Neftchi, 1.24 for Toktogul. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TOK 0–3 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 18 Aug

NEFTCHI

WLWLDW3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

TOKTOGUL

WWDDLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	26	+35	55
2	Alga	26	+26	55
3	Asia Talas	26	+20	52
4	Ozgon	25	+22	51
5	Muras United	25	+27	50
6	Alay	26	0	40
7	Talant	26	+7	33
8	Bishkek City	26	0	33
9	Neftchi	26	−7	33
10	Toktogul	25	−9	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	25	+2	29
12	Ilbirs	25	−14	28
13	OshMU Aldier	26	−15	28
14	Asiagoal	26	−15	21
15	Abdish-Ata	25	−29	15
16	Kara-Balta	26	−50	9