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Neftchi v Muras United

Neftchi

0–0Full time

Muras United

Premier League · THU 8 OCT

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Neftchi win19%

Draw22%

Muras United win59%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

THU 8 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · muras united winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Muras United a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftchi win	19%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Muras United win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Neftchi or draw	41%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	13%	–	–
Muras United clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.8 8.0 8.8 6.1 3.3 1 4.1 9.8 9.5 6.6 3.6 2 2.6 5.2 5.3 3.7 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftchi down, Muras United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 Premier League matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 187 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftchi at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Muras United away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Neftchi, 2.11 for Muras United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MUR 6–2 NEF · MUR 4–1 NEF · NEF 1–2 MUR · NEF 0–1 MUR

Form · last six in Premier League

NEFTCHI

WLWLWL4–1 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3

MURAS UNITED

DDDWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	23	+29	46
2	Muras United	22	+27	46
3	Alga	23	+18	46
4	Asia Talas	24	+17	46
5	Ozgon	22	+22	45
6	Alay	24	+1	39
7	Talant	24	+4	30
8	Dordoi Bishkek	23	+4	29
9	Neftchi	24	−9	29
10	Ilbirs	23	−5	28
11	OshMU Aldier	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	23	−9	28
13	Bishkek City	24	−7	27
14	Asiagoal	24	−13	21
15	Abdish-Ata	23	−27	14
16	Kara-Balta	24	−44	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Premier League

The table