Neftchi v Ilbirs prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NeftchiDrawIlbirs

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Neftchi 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neftchi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neftchi 49%, draw 25%, Ilbirs 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Neftchi v IlbirsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

Neftchi win49%

Draw25%

Ilbirs win26%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neftchi

Ilbirs

9Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Neftchi	27	−6	36
12	Ilbirs	26	−14	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neftchi winFirst published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Neftchi a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neftchi v Ilbirs~~1.70 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 19 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 29~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftchi win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ilbirs win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Neftchi or draw	74%	–	–
Neftchi clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ilbirs clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 6.1 4.0 1 9.0 11.8 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.6 5.3 3.1 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftchi down, Ilbirs across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 912 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftchi at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ilbirs away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Neftchi, 1.17 for Ilbirs. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ILB 2–1 NEF · NEF 2–0 ILB · ILB 2–2 NEF · ILB 1–0 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 19 Aug

NEFTCHI

LWLDWW0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

ILBIRS

DDWLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	27	+36	58
2	Alga	27	+26	56
3	Ozgon	26	+23	54
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
5	Asia Talas	27	+19	52
6	Alay	27	0	41
7	Bishkek City	27	+1	36
8	Neftchi	27	−6	36
9	Talant	27	+6	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29
12	Ilbirs	26	−14	29
13	OshMU Aldier	27	−19	28
14	Asiagoal	27	−11	24
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15
16	Kara-Balta	27	−50	10