Muras United v Abdish-Ata prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Muras UnitedDrawAbdish-Ata

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Muras United 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muras United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muras United 63%, draw 21%, Abdish-Ata 16%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Muras United v Abdish-AtaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

Muras United win63%

Draw21%

Abdish-Ata win16%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muras United

Abdish-Ata

7Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muras united winFirst published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Muras United a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Muras United v Abdish-Ata~~2.14 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 53 v 15~~4 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muras United win	63%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Abdish-Ata win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Muras United or draw	84%	–	–
Muras United clean sheet	38%	–	–
Abdish-Ata clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 5.4 4.0 2.3 1 9.0 9.8 4.5 2 10.0 9.5 4.7 3 7.1 6.7 3.2 4 3.9 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muras United down, Abdish-Ata across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 912 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Muras United at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Abdish-Ata away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Muras United, 0.97 for Abdish-Ata. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ABD 1–2 MUR · ABD 0–3 MUR · MUR 3–0 ABD · MUR 3–1 ABD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

MURAS UNITED

LWDLWW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–0

ABDISH-ATA

LLLDLL0–3 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	27	+36	58
2	Alga	27	+26	56
3	Ozgon	26	+23	54
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
5	Asia Talas	27	+19	52
6	Alay	27	0	41
7	Bishkek City	27	+1	36
8	Neftchi	27	−6	36
9	Talant	27	+6	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29
12	Ilbirs	26	−14	29
13	OshMU Aldier	27	−19	28
14	Asiagoal	27	−11	24
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15
16	Kara-Balta	27	−50	10