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Kara-Balta v Neftchi
Kara-Balta
NeftchiPremier League · THU 15 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Neftchi win at 58%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Neftchi 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 19–22–59
- 1′KICK-OFF Kara-Balta v Neftchi
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
- 45′We said Neftchi at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 19–35–46
- 45′HALF-TIME Kara-Balta 0–0 Neftchi
- 46′SECOND HALF Kara-Balta 0–0 Neftchi
- 47′A goal for Neftchi on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Kara-Balta 0–1 Neftchi
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
- 48′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 4–15–82
- 50′We said Neftchi at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 18–38–44 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
- 65′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
- 78′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 84′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 84′Neftchi score on 84′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, over 99% now
- FTFULL TIME Kara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi
- FTKara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi · Neftchi win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassNeftchi are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kara-Balta 19%, draw 23%, Neftchi 58%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off
Kara-Balta win19%
Neftchi win58%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 26
Match timeline
All events
Kara-BaltaMIN
NeftchiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kara-Balta
Neftchi
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Neftchi a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kara-Balta win | 19% | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – |
| Neftchi win | 58% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – | – |
| Kara-Balta or draw | 42% | – | – |
| Kara-Balta clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
| Neftchi clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug
KARA-BALTA
NEFTCHI
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bars | 25 | +34 | 52 |
| 2 | Alga | 25 | +20 | 52 |
| 3 | Asia Talas | 25 | +19 | 49 |
| 4 | Ozgon | 24 | +21 | 48 |
| 5 | Muras United | 24 | +26 | 47 |
| 6 | Alay | 25 | +1 | 40 |
| 7 | Talant | 25 | +8 | 33 |
| 8 | Bishkek City | 25 | −3 | 30 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 25 | −9 | 30 |
| 10 | Dordoi Bishkek | 24 | +3 | 29 |
| 11 | Ilbirs | 24 | −8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 24 | −11 | 28 |
| 13 | OshMU Aldier | 25 | −12 | 28 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 25 | −14 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 24 | −27 | 15 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 25 | −48 | 9 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Bars
Alga
Asia Talas
Ozgon
Muras United
Alay
Talant
Bishkek City
Dordoi Bishkek
Ilbirs
Toktogul
OshMU Aldier
Asiagoal
Abdish-Ata