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Kara-Balta v Neftchi

Kara-Balta
0–2Full time
Neftchi

Premier League · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30
Kara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi NEFTCHI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Neftchi win58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Neftchi win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Neftchi 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 19–22–59
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kara-Balta v Neftchi
  4. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  5. 45′We said Neftchi at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 19–35–46
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Kara-Balta 0–0 Neftchi
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Kara-Balta 0–0 Neftchi
  8. 47′A goal for Neftchi on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
  9. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Kara-Balta 0–1 Neftchi
  10. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
  11. 48′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 4–15–82
  12. 50′We said Neftchi at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 18–38–44 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  13. 65′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  14. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  15. 78′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  16. 84′We said Neftchi at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  17. 84′Neftchi score on 84′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  18. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi
  19. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Neftchi win: 58% at kick-off, over 99% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Kara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi
  21. FTKara-Balta 0–2 Neftchi · Neftchi win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neftchi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kara-Balta 19%, draw 23%, Neftchi 58%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Kara-Balta v NeftchiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off

Kara-Balta win19%
Draw23%
Neftchi win58%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kara-Balta

Neftchi

5Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Neftchi25−930
16Kara-Balta25−489

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neftchi winFirst published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off
58% The market–
Us58%

We make Neftchi a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kara-Balta v Neftchi1.03 – 1.97
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 AugW0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 9 v 3016 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kara-Balta win19%––
Draw23%––
Neftchi win58%––
Over 2.5 goals57%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals80%––
Over 3.5 goals35%––
Kara-Balta or draw42%––
Kara-Balta clean sheet15%––
Neftchi clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 6.0 9.2 9.5 6.3 3.2 1 4.6 10.7 9.5 6.2 3.2 2 2.8 5.2 4.9 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kara-Balta down, Neftchi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsNEF 1–0 KAR · NEF 1–3 KAR · KAR 1–0 NEF · NEF 2–2 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

KARA-BALTA

LDLLDL0–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–4

NEFTCHI

LWLWLD0–4 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bars25+3452
2Alga25+2052
3Asia Talas25+1949
4Ozgon24+2148
5Muras United24+2647
6Alay25+140
7Talant25+833
8Bishkek City25−330
9Neftchi25−930
10Dordoi Bishkek24+329
11Ilbirs24−828
12Toktogul24−1128
13OshMU Aldier25−1228
14Asiagoal25−1421
15Abdish-Ata24−2715
16Kara-Balta25−489

The competition's standings before kick-off.