Kara-Balta v Alay prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kara-BaltaDrawAlay

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alay 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alay are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kara-Balta 13%, draw 21%, Alay 66%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kara-Balta v AlayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

Kara-Balta win13%

Draw21%

Alay win66%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kara-Balta

Alay

5Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Alay	27	0	41
16	Kara-Balta	27	−50	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alay winFirst published 24 Oct 15:51 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Alay a 66% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.0, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kara-Balta v Alay~~0.78 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 41~~16 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kara-Balta win	13%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Alay win	66%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Kara-Balta or draw	34%	–	–
Kara-Balta clean sheet	14%	–	–
Alay clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 11.7 12.2 8.3 4.4 1 4.2 10.0 9.3 6.3 3.2 2 3.7 3.6 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kara-Balta down, Alay across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 912 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kara-Balta at home: 0.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Alay away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Kara-Balta, 2.04 for Alay. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 1–1 KAR · KAR 2–0 ALA · ALA 2–1 KAR · ALA 1–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

KARA-BALTA

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

ALAY

LLLDLD0–6 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	27	+36	58
2	Alga	27	+26	56
3	Ozgon	26	+23	54
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
5	Asia Talas	27	+19	52
6	Alay	27	0	41
7	Bishkek City	27	+1	36
8	Neftchi	27	−6	36
9	Talant	27	+6	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29
12	Ilbirs	26	−14	29
13	OshMU Aldier	27	−19	28
14	Asiagoal	27	−11	24
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15
16	Kara-Balta	27	−50	10