Ilbirs v Kara-Balta prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Ilbirs 1–1 Kara-Balta ILBIRS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ilbirs win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.959

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ilbirs are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ilbirs 58%, draw 23%, Kara-Balta 19%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ilbirs v Kara-BaltaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Ilbirs win58%

Draw23%

Kara-Balta win19%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ilbirs

Kara-Balta

6Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ilbirs	25	−14	28
16	Kara-Balta	26	−50	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ilbirs winFirst published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ilbirs a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ilbirs v Kara-Balta~~1.90 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 9~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilbirs win	58%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kara-Balta win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Ilbirs or draw	81%	–	–
Ilbirs clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kara-Balta clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.6 5.1 2.8 1 10.2 10.9 5.1 2 10.1 9.6 4.7 3 6.4 6.0 2.9 4 3.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilbirs down, Kara-Balta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 910 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ilbirs at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kara-Balta away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Ilbirs, 0.97 for Kara-Balta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAR 0–2 ILB · KAR 1–1 ILB · ILB 0–2 KAR · KAR 0–1 ILB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug

ILBIRS

WDDWLL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–6

KARA-BALTA

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	27	+36	58
2	Alga	27	+26	56
3	Ozgon	26	+23	54
4	Muras United	26	+29	53
5	Asia Talas	27	+19	52
6	Alay	27	0	41
7	Neftchi	27	−6	36
8	Talant	26	+7	33
9	Bishkek City	26	0	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	0	29
12	Ilbirs	25	−14	28
13	OshMU Aldier	27	−19	28
14	Asiagoal	27	−11	24
15	Abdish-Ata	26	−30	15
16	Kara-Balta	26	−50	9