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Ilbirs v Bars

Ilbirs

0–3Full time

Bars

Premier League · THU 8 OCT

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ilbirs win17%

Draw19%

Bars win63%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

THU 8 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · bars winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Bars a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilbirs win	17%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Bars win	63%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Ilbirs or draw	37%	–	–
Ilbirs clean sheet	10%	–	–
Bars clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 6.6 8.1 6.4 3.9 1 3.1 8.4 9.2 7.2 4.4 2.22 2.0 4.6 5.4 4.2 2.5 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilbirs down, Bars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 Premier League matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 187 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ilbirs at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bars away: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Ilbirs, 2.39 for Bars. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BAR 4–1 ILB · ILB 0–2 BAR · BAR 3–0 ILB

Form · last six in Premier League

ILBIRS

WDWDDW2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

BARS

WWWLWW2–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 6–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	23	+29	46
2	Muras United	22	+27	46
3	Alga	23	+18	46
4	Asia Talas	24	+17	46
5	Ozgon	22	+22	45
6	Alay	24	+1	39
7	Talant	24	+4	30
8	Dordoi Bishkek	23	+4	29
9	Neftchi	24	−9	29
10	Ilbirs	23	−5	28
11	OshMU Aldier	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	23	−9	28
13	Bishkek City	24	−7	27
14	Asiagoal	24	−13	21
15	Abdish-Ata	23	−27	14
16	Kara-Balta	24	−44	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Premier League

The table