Dordoi Bishkek v Muras United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 16:30

Dordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United MURAS UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muras United win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muras United win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Muras United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Dordoi Bishkek v Muras United
34′Muras United score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dordoi Bishkek 0–1 Muras United
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Muras United win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
35′We published Muras United at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–71
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Muras United win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Dordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United
46′Muras United find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Dordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Muras United win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
46′SECOND HALF Dordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United
47′We published Muras United at 43%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Muras United win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
57′We published Muras United at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
83′We published Muras United at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United
FTDordoi Bishkek 0–2 Muras United · Muras United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muras United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dordoi Bishkek 31%, draw 26%, Muras United 43%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dordoi Bishkek v Muras UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 10:31 · locked at kick-off

Dordoi Bishkek win31%

Draw26%

Muras United win43%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dordoi Bishkek

Muras United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Muras United	25	+27	50
11	Dordoi Bishkek	25	+2	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muras united winFirst published 19 Oct 10:31 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Muras United a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dordoi Bishkek v Muras United~~1.33 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 50~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dordoi Bishkek win	31%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Muras United win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Dordoi Bishkek or draw	57%	–	–
Dordoi Bishkek clean sheet	20%	–	–
Muras United clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 7.8 6.8 3.7 1 6.3 11.8 8.8 4.8 2.0 2 4.7 7.3 5.8 3.2 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dordoi Bishkek down, Muras United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 905 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dordoi Bishkek at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muras United away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Dordoi Bishkek, 1.62 for Muras United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~8 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MUR 2–0 DOR · DOR 3–1 MUR · MUR 1–1 DOR · DOR 3–3 MUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug

DORDOI BISHKEK

LLWDLL0–3 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2

MURAS UNITED

WLWDLW6–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	26	+35	55
2	Alga	26	+26	55
3	Asia Talas	26	+20	52
4	Ozgon	25	+22	51
5	Muras United	25	+27	50
6	Alay	26	0	40
7	Neftchi	27	−6	36
8	Talant	26	+7	33
9	Bishkek City	26	0	33
10	Toktogul	26	−10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	25	+2	29
12	Ilbirs	25	−14	28
13	OshMU Aldier	26	−15	28
14	Asiagoal	26	−15	21
15	Abdish-Ata	25	−29	15
16	Kara-Balta	26	−50	9