Bishkek City v OshMU Aldier prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30

Bishkek City 3–0 OshMU Aldier BISHKEK CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bishkek City win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bishkek City win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bishkek City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Bishkek City v OshMU Aldier
45′HALF-TIME Bishkek City 0–0 OshMU Aldier
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Bishkek City win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF Bishkek City 0–0 OshMU Aldier
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–43–27
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Bishkek City win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
61′We said Bishkek City at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
66′We said Bishkek City at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
68′Bishkek City find the net on 67′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–3
68′We published Bishkek City at 39%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–3
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Bishkek City 1–0 OshMU Aldier
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bishkek City win: 39% at kick-off, 78% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Bishkek City win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Bishkek City win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We published Bishkek City at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
77′We published Bishkek City at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Bishkek City win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We published Bishkek City at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′A goal for Bishkek City on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bishkek City 2–0 OshMU Aldier
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Bishkek City win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′We published Bishkek City at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′Bishkek City score on 87′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bishkek City 3–0 OshMU Aldier
FTFULL TIME Bishkek City 3–0 OshMU Aldier
FTBishkek City 3–0 OshMU Aldier · Bishkek City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bishkek City just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bishkek City 39%, draw 26%, OshMU Aldier 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Bishkek City v OshMU AldierBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off

Bishkek City win39%

Draw26%

OshMU Aldier win35%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bishkek City

OshMU Aldier

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bishkek City	25	−3	30
13	OshMU Aldier	25	−12	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bishkek city winFirst published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bishkek City a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bishkek City v OshMU Aldier~~1.51 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 19 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 28~~8 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bishkek City win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
OshMU Aldier win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Bishkek City or draw	65%	–	–
Bishkek City clean sheet	25%	–	–
OshMU Aldier clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 7.0 5.4 2.6 1 7.4 12.1 7.9 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.1 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bishkek City down, OshMU Aldier across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 896 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings since 2025, in every competition we cover: 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bishkek City at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). OshMU Aldier away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Bishkek City, 1.42 for OshMU Aldier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OSH 2–0 BIS · BIS 0–2 OSH · OSH 3–0 BIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 19 Aug

BISHKEK CITY

LLWDWW1–3 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 4–0

OSHMU ALDIER

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	25	+34	52
2	Alga	25	+20	52
3	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
4	Ozgon	24	+21	48
5	Muras United	24	+26	47
6	Alay	25	+1	40
7	Talant	25	+8	33
8	Bishkek City	25	−3	30
9	Neftchi	25	−9	30
10	Dordoi Bishkek	24	+3	29
11	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
13	OshMU Aldier	25	−12	28
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	24	−27	15
16	Kara-Balta	25	−48	9