Alga v Muras United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Alga 3–2 Muras United MURAS UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muras United win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muras United win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Alga v Muras United
4′Little has changed for our model: Muras United 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alga 1–0 Muras United
17′16′ and it is 1–0: Alga have scored. 1–0 · 55–24–21
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Muras United win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Alga win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Muras United win 21%)
19′We said Muras United at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 55–24–21
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Alga 1–1 Muras United
25′Muras United find the net on 24′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–30–44
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Muras United win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Muras United win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Alga win 26%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alga 1–1 Muras United
39′⚽ GOAL · 24' Alga 1–1 Muras United
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Alga 1–2 Muras United
45′HALF-TIME Alga 1–2 Muras United
46′SECOND HALF Alga 1–2 Muras United
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Alga 2–2 Muras United
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Alga 3–2 Muras United
FTFULL TIME Alga 3–2 Muras United
FTAlga 3–2 Muras United · Muras United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

Alga win27%

Draw26%

Muras United win47%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alga

Muras United

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Alga	24	+19	49
5	Muras United	23	+27	47

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muras united winFirst published 13 Oct 11:18 · updated 13 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Muras United a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alga win	27%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Muras United win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Alga or draw	53%	–	–
Alga clean sheet	20%	–	–
Muras United clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 9.2 8.1 4.4 1 6.4 12.2 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.2 6.6 5.3 2.9 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alga down, Muras United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 895 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 196 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alga at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muras United away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Alga, 1.64 for Muras United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MUR 1–3 ALG · MUR 1–0 ALG · ALG 0–4 MUR · MUR 0–1 ALG

Form · last six in Premier League

ALGA

LWLWDW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2

MURAS UNITED

DDWLWD1–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	25	+34	52
2	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
3	Alga	24	+19	49
4	Ozgon	24	+21	48
5	Muras United	23	+27	47
6	Alay	25	+1	40
7	Talant	25	+8	33
8	Bishkek City	25	−3	30
9	Neftchi	25	−9	30
10	Dordoi Bishkek	24	+3	29
11	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
13	OshMU Aldier	25	−12	28
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	24	−27	15
16	Kara-Balta	25	−48	9