Alga v Ilbirs prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Alga 6–0 Ilbirs ALGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alga win~~54%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alga win at 54%.
1′Alga score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–13–8
1′We said Alga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–13–8
1′KICK-OFF Alga v Ilbirs
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
37′We said Alga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Alga 2–0 Ilbirs
46′Alga find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
46′We said Alga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
46′A goal for Alga on 46′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Alga 2–0 Ilbirs
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Alga win: 54% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF Alga 2–0 Ilbirs
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Alga 3–0 Ilbirs
48′A goal for Alga on 46′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
49′We said Alga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
49′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′We said Alga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
55′Alga score on 55′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Alga 4–0 Ilbirs
56′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
64′Alga find the net on 64′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Alga 5–0 Ilbirs
65′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
81′A goal for Alga on 81′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Alga 6–0 Ilbirs
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Alga 6–0 Ilbirs
FTAlga 6–0 Ilbirs · Alga win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alga 54%, draw 25%, Ilbirs 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Alga v IlbirsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

Alga win54%

Draw25%

Ilbirs win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alga

Ilbirs

4Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

Last match: 8 Oct · Premier League (Kyrgyzstan)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Alga	25	+20	52
12	Ilbirs	24	−8	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alga winFirst published 15 Oct 12:26 · locked at kick-off

54% The market65%

Us54%

~~Market~~65%

We make Alga a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alga v Ilbirs~~1.76 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 52 v 28~~2 v 12

~~The market · Alga win~~65% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alga win	54%	65%	−11
Draw	25%	20%	+5
Ilbirs win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Alga or draw	79%	85%	−6
Alga clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ilbirs clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.4 5.7 3.2 1 10.4 11.7 5.5 2 9.7 9.5 4.8 3 5.7 5.6 2.8 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alga down, Ilbirs across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 901 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alga at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ilbirs away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Alga, 1.00 for Ilbirs. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ILB 2–2 ALG · ILB 1–1 ALG · ALG 2–1 ILB · ILB 1–0 ALG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Aug

ALGA

WLWDWW3–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2

ILBIRS

DWDDWL1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	26	+35	55
2	Alga	25	+20	52
3	Muras United	25	+27	50
4	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
5	Ozgon	24	+21	48
6	Alay	25	+1	40
7	Talant	26	+7	33
8	Bishkek City	26	0	33
9	Neftchi	26	−7	33
10	Toktogul	25	−9	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	25	+2	29
12	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
13	OshMU Aldier	26	−15	28
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	25	−29	15
16	Kara-Balta	26	−50	9