Alay v Alga

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Alay win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Alay 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
3. 1′KICK-OFF Alay v Alga
4. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Alay win 34%)
5. 41′Alga find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
6. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alay 0–1 Alga
7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Alay win: 37% at kick-off, 10% now
8. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Alga win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 37%)
9. 42′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
10. 43′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
11. 45′HALF-TIME Alay 0–1 Alga
12. 46′SECOND HALF Alay 0–1 Alga
13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Alay win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
14. 59′A goal for Alay on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–50–25
15. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Alay 1–1 Alga
16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Alay win: 37% at kick-off, 26% now
17. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Alga win 74%)
18. 60′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
19. 62′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
20. 71′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
21. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Alay win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
22. 79′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–75–13
23. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Alay
24. 84′Alay are down to ten from 83′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 8–85–8
25. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Alay win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
26. 90′We said Alay at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
27. FTFULL TIME Alay 1–1 Alga
28. FTAlay 1–1 Alga · Alay win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.