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Alay v Abdish-Ata

Alay

0–0Full time

Abdish-Ata

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Alay 0–0 Abdish-Ata ALAY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alay win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Alay win49%

Draw26%

Abdish-Ata win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alay winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Alay a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alay win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Abdish-Ata win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Alay or draw	74%	–	–
Alay clean sheet	32%	–	–
Abdish-Ata clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 6.3 4.0 1 9.3 12.0 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.6 5.2 2.9 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alay down, Abdish-Ata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 891 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 11 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alay at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Abdish-Ata away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Alay, 1.15 for Abdish-Ata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 16

~~Both scored~~9 of 16

~~Last meetings~~ABD 1–2 ALA · ALA 4–0 ABD · ABD 1–3 ALA · ABD 3–0 ALA

Form · last six in Premier League

ALAY

WWDLLL2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 2–4

ABDISH-ATA

LLDLLL2–3 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bars	24	+32	49
2	Asia Talas	25	+19	49
3	Alga	24	+19	49
4	Ozgon	23	+23	48
5	Muras United	23	+27	47
6	Alay	24	+1	39
7	Talant	24	+4	30
8	Neftchi	25	−9	30
9	Dordoi Bishkek	24	+3	29
10	OshMU Aldier	24	−8	28
11	Ilbirs	24	−8	28
12	Toktogul	24	−11	28
13	Bishkek City	24	−7	27
14	Asiagoal	25	−14	21
15	Abdish-Ata	23	−27	14
16	Kara-Balta	24	−44	9