Al Tadhamon v Al Sahel prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al TadhamonDrawAl Sahel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Tadhamon 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Tadhamon just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Tadhamon 37%, draw 28%, Al Sahel 35%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al Tadhamon v Al SahelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Tadhamon win37%

Draw28%

Al Sahel win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Tadhamon

Al Sahel

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
12	Al Tadhamon	6	−14	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al tadhamon winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Al Tadhamon a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Tadhamon v Al Sahel~~1.32 – 1.28

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 4~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Tadhamon win

Published at 33%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Tadhamon win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al Sahel win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Tadhamon or draw	65%	–	–
Al Tadhamon clean sheet	28%	–	–
Al Sahel clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.9 8.6 6.1 2.7 1 8.8 13.2 7.8 3.4 2 6.4 7.9 5.0 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Tadhamon down, Al Sahel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 608 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Tadhamon at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Sahel away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Al Tadhamon, 1.28 for Al Sahel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALT 2–0 ALS · ALS 0–3 ALT · ALT 0–0 ALS · ALS 1–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug

AL TADHAMON

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–6

AL SAHEL

WDLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	6	+19	16
2	Kazma	6	+5	14
3	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
4	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
5	Al Nasar	5	−6	9
6	Al Shabab	5	0	7
7	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
8	Al Jahra	5	−2	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	6	−9	3
12	Al Tadhamon	6	−14	0