Al Tadhamon v Al Kuwait prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Al Tadhamon 2–6 Al Kuwait AL KUWAIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Kuwait win~~82%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.051

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Kuwait win at 82%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Kuwait was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 82% now. 0–0 · 6–12–82
1′KICK-OFF Al Tadhamon v Al Kuwait
18′Al Kuwait score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–5–93
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Al Tadhamon 0–1 Al Kuwait
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Al Kuwait win: 82% at kick-off, 93% now
25′We published Al Kuwait at 82%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Al Tadhamon 0–2 Al Kuwait
26′Al Kuwait find the net on 26′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
35′We published Al Kuwait at 82%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al Tadhamon 0–3 Al Kuwait
36′A goal for Al Kuwait on 35′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
41′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al Tadhamon 0–4 Al Kuwait
42′Al Kuwait score on 42′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Al Tadhamon 0–4 Al Kuwait
46′SECOND HALF Al Tadhamon 0–4 Al Kuwait
56′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Al Tadhamon 0–5 Al Kuwait
57′Al Kuwait find the net on 57′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
61′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Al Tadhamon 1–5 Al Kuwait
62′A goal for Al Tadhamon on 62′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
74′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
74′Al Kuwait score on 74′ to make it 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Tadhamon 1–6 Al Kuwait
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Al Kuwait
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Al Tadhamon 2–5 Al Kuwait
86′8 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–6 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al Tadhamon 2–6 Al Kuwait
87′Al Kuwait find the net on 87′. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
90′Full time, 2–6. We called Al Kuwait at 82% — that one lands. 2–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Al Tadhamon 2–6 Al Kuwait
FTAl Tadhamon 2–6 Al Kuwait · Al Kuwait win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Kuwait are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Tadhamon 6%, draw 12%, Al Kuwait 82%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al Tadhamon v Al KuwaitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Tadhamon win6%

Draw12%

Al Kuwait win82%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:50

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Tadhamon

Al Kuwait

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kuwait winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

82% The market85%

Us82%

~~Market~~85%

We make Al Kuwait an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–3.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Tadhamon v Al Kuwait~~0.70 – 3.04

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 13~~12 v 1

~~The market · Al Kuwait win~~85% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Kuwait win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Tadhamon win	6%	4%	+2
Draw	12%	11%	+1
Al Kuwait win	82%	85%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Both teams to score	48%	42%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	89%	87%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Al Tadhamon or draw	18%	15%	+3
Al Tadhamon clean sheet	5%	–	–
Al Kuwait clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%

0123450 3.1 6.9 10.8 10.8 8.2 5.11 5.7 7.5 7.4 5.5 3.42 2.7 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Tadhamon down, Al Kuwait across0–5 goals a side shown (90.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 604 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Tadhamon at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Kuwait away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Al Tadhamon, 3.04 for Al Kuwait. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALK 7–1 ALT · ALT 1–3 ALK · ALK 3–0 ALT · ALK 3–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL TADHAMON

LLLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2

AL KUWAIT

DWWWW3–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 7–1 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	5	+15	13
2	Kazma	5	+4	11
3	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
4	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
5	Al Nasar	5	−6	9
6	Al Shabab	5	0	7
7	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
8	Al Jahra	5	−2	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	5	−8	3
12	Al Tadhamon	5	−10	0