Al Shabab v Al Qadsia prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ShababDrawAl Qadsia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:50

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Qadsia 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Qadsia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shabab 14%, draw 22%, Al Qadsia 64%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al Shabab v Al QadsiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Shabab win14%

Draw22%

Al Qadsia win64%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:50

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shabab

Al Qadsia

10Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 23 Oct · AFC Challenge League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
7	Al Shabab	5	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al qadsia winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Al Qadsia a 64% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.0, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shabab v Al Qadsia~~0.81 – 2.00

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Qadsia win

Published at 63%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shabab win	14%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Al Qadsia win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Al Shabab or draw	36%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	14%	–	–
Al Qadsia clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 11.3 11.8 7.9 4.1 1 4.2 10.4 9.3 6.2 3.1 2 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shabab down, Al Qadsia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 608 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shabab at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Qadsia away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Al Shabab, 2.00 for Al Qadsia. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ALQ 4–1 ALS · ALS 0–2 ALQ · ALS 1–1 ALQ · ALQ 7–0 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL SHABAB

WDLWL3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2

AL QADSIA

WLWW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	6	+19	16
2	Kazma	6	+5	14
3	Al Nasar	6	−3	12
4	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
5	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
6	Al Salmiyah	5	+1	9
7	Al Shabab	5	0	7
8	Al Jahra	6	−3	4
9	Al Sahel	5	−7	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	6	−9	3
12	Al Tadhamon	6	−14	0