Home › Football › Premier League › Al Salmiyah v Al Shabab

Al Salmiyah v Al Shabab

Al Salmiyah

0–2Full time

Al Shabab

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:46

Al Salmiyah 0–2 Al Shabab AL SALMIYAH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Salmiyah win~~64%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.199

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.148

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Salmiyah win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Salmiyah was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–14
1′KICK-OFF Al Salmiyah v Al Shabab
4′Much as we predicted: Al Salmiyah was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–14
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Al Salmiyah 0–0 Al Shabab
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Al Salmiyah 0–1 Al Shabab
45′SECOND HALF Al Salmiyah 0–1 Al Shabab
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al Salmiyah 0–1 Al Shabab
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Al Salmiyah 0–2 Al Shabab
FTFULL TIME Al Salmiyah 0–2 Al Shabab
FTAl Salmiyah 0–2 Al Shabab · Al Salmiyah win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Salmiyah win64%

Draw22%

Al Shabab win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:05

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al salmiyah winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

64% The market62%

Us64%

~~Market~~62%

We make Al Salmiyah a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al salmiyah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Salmiyah win	64%	62%	+2
Draw	22%	23%	0
Al Shabab win	14%	15%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Al Salmiyah or draw	86%	85%	+2
Al Salmiyah clean sheet	45%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.3 4.1 2.1 1 11.2 10.5 4.0 2 11.9 9.3 3.8 3 8.0 6.2 2.5 4 4.1 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Salmiyah down, Al Shabab across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 596 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Salmiyah at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shabab away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Al Salmiyah, 0.81 for Al Shabab. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALS 3–0 ALS · ALS 0–0 ALS · ALS 1–0 ALS · ALS 1–2 ALS

Form · last six in Premier League

AL SALMIYAH

WWLLWW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

AL SHABAB

LLWWDL0–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Kazma	4	+3	8
3	Al Qadsia	3	+3	6
4	Al Salmiyah	3	+2	6
5	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
6	Al Shabab	3	0	4
7	Al Sahel	3	0	4
8	Al Fahaheel	3	+1	3
9	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
10	Al Jahra	3	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	3	−1	2
12	Al Tadhamon	3	−7	0