Al Salmiyah v Al Jahra prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Al Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra AL SALMIYAH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Salmiyah win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Salmiyah win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Salmiyah was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–25–16
1′KICK-OFF Al Salmiyah v Al Jahra
6′Al Salmiyah find the net on 6′. 0–0 · 58–26–16
8′We published Al Salmiyah at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–5
8′⚽ GOAL · 6' Al Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Al Salmiyah win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
40′A goal for Al Jahra on 39′. 1–0 · 83–13–3
45′HALF-TIME Al Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra
45′SECOND HALF Al Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra
53′We published Al Salmiyah at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Al Salmiyah win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
74′We published Al Salmiyah at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′We published Al Salmiyah at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Al Salmiyah win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Al Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra
FTAl Salmiyah 1–0 Al Jahra · Al Salmiyah win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Salmiyah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Salmiyah 59%, draw 25%, Al Jahra 16%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al Salmiyah v Al JahraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Salmiyah win59%

Draw25%

Al Jahra win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:35

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Salmiyah

Al Jahra

14Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
8	Al Jahra	5	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al salmiyah winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:21 · locked at kick-off

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Al Salmiyah a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Salmiyah v Al Jahra~~1.82 – 0.83

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~7 v 8

~~The market · Al Salmiyah win~~65% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Salmiyah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Salmiyah win	59%	65%	−6
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Al Jahra win	16%	14%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Al Salmiyah or draw	84%	86%	−2
Al Salmiyah clean sheet	44%	–	–
Al Jahra clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 8.4 5.0 2.6 1 11.9 11.5 4.4 2 11.5 9.4 3.9 3 7.0 5.7 2.4 4 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Salmiyah down, Al Jahra across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Salmiyah at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Jahra away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Al Salmiyah, 0.83 for Al Jahra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALJ 0–1 ALS · ALS 2–0 ALJ · ALJ 1–2 ALS · ALS 2–1 ALJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 26 Aug

AL SALMIYAH

LWWL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

AL JAHRA

LWLDL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	6	+19	16
2	Kazma	6	+5	14
3	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
4	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
5	Al Nasar	5	−6	9
6	Al Shabab	5	0	7
7	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
8	Al Jahra	5	−2	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	6	−9	3
12	Al Tadhamon	6	−14	0