Al Sahel v Al Fahaheel prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Al Sahel 0–4 Al Fahaheel AL SAHEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Sahel win~~41%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.718

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Sahel win at 41%.
0′Much as we predicted: Al Sahel was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
1′KICK-OFF Al Sahel v Al Fahaheel
4′Much as we predicted: Al Sahel was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al Sahel 0–0 Al Fahaheel
45′SECOND HALF Al Sahel 0–1 Al Fahaheel
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al Sahel 0–1 Al Fahaheel
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al Sahel 0–1 Al Fahaheel
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al Sahel 0–2 Al Fahaheel
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Al Sahel 0–2 Al Fahaheel
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Al Sahel 0–3 Al Fahaheel
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al Sahel 0–3 Al Fahaheel
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al Sahel 0–4 Al Fahaheel
FTFULL TIME Al Sahel 0–4 Al Fahaheel
FTAl Sahel 0–4 Al Fahaheel · Al Sahel win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Al Sahel win41%

Draw28%

Al Fahaheel win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Sahel

Al Fahaheel

35Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Al Sahel	3	0	4
8	Al Fahaheel	3	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al sahel winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

41% The market26%

Us41%

~~Market~~26%

We make Al Sahel a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al sahel win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Sahel win	41%	26%	+15
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Al Fahaheel win	31%	48%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	−1
Al Sahel or draw	69%	52%	+17
Al Sahel clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Fahaheel clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.4 7.4 5.2 2.2 1 8.8 12.9 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 8.5 5.2 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Sahel down, Al Fahaheel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 598 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Sahel at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Fahaheel away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Al Sahel, 1.24 for Al Fahaheel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALS 2–3 ALF · ALF 2–0 ALS

Form · last six in Premier League

AL SAHEL

DWWWDL0–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

AL FAHAHEEL

LLLLLW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
3	Kazma	4	+3	8
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
6	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
7	Al Sahel	3	0	4
8	Al Fahaheel	3	+1	3
9	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
10	Al Jahra	3	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	3	−1	2
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0