Al Qadsia v Al Sahel prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al Qadsia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Qadsia 60%, draw 25%, Al Sahel 16%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Al Qadsia v Al SahelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Al Qadsia win60%

Draw25%

Al Sahel win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:45

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Qadsia

Al Sahel

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
9	Al Sahel	4	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al qadsia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · postponed, not graded

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Al Qadsia a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Qadsia v Al Sahel~~1.83 – 0.81

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Qadsia win

Published at 54%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Qadsia win	60%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Al Sahel win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Qadsia or draw	84%	–	–
Al Qadsia clean sheet	45%	–	–
Al Sahel clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 4.9 2.5 1 12.1 11.4 4.3 2 11.7 9.1 3.7 3 7.2 5.5 2.3 4 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Qadsia down, Al Sahel across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 600 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Qadsia at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Sahel away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Al Qadsia, 0.81 for Al Sahel. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALQ 3–1 ALS · ALQ 1–4 ALS · ALS 2–3 ALQ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL QADSIA

WLWW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

AL SAHEL

WDLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
3	Kazma	4	+3	8
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Fahaheel	4	+5	6
6	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
7	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
8	Al Jahra	4	−1	4
9	Al Sahel	4	0	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	4	−1	3
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0